Nick:
This suddenly looks remarkably presceint, eh?
Please continue to keep us appraised of your work, this sounds like very
cool stuff.
JDG
At 02:25 PM 10/19/00 -0700, you wrote:
>
>
>Since politics is on topic now, I thought I'd share a bit of what we've
>discovered lately in our research. This is off-the-record, please. It's
>so preliminary that I don't want anyone taking it too seriously.
>
>Our goal was to see how the most influential people in on-line financial
>forums plan to vote. I'm not going to say too much about how we measure
>influence, but it's the sort of thing I've talked about here in the past --
>how the community responds to postings, how widely a person posts (one's
>sphere of influence is obviously limited by how widely one participates in
>discussions), and how closely one's pattern of postings correlates to
>external patterns, such as stock prices.
>
>The most striking thing about a survey of the most influential people is
>that while those who said they'd vote for Gore and Bush had virtually
>identical influence rankings in their communities, there were big
>differences for Nader's supporters and the undecided. (No other candidates
>showed up in significant numbers in our survey.)
>
>Nader's supporters were much *less* influential, while undecided voters
>were much *more* influential. Although the survey showed a small
>preference for Bush (not surprising among people who can afford to trade
>stocks), the undecided block, at 12 percent, was clearly enough to sway
>the election either way... and given that they are among the most
>influential in the whole population, this election looks impossible to
>predict. Really, really impossible, at least with any forecasting
>technique available today.
>
>My apologies to those who want the underlying numbers on this -- I'm not
>prepared to divulge details yet.
>
>Nick
>
>
>
_______________________________________________
John D. Giorgis - [EMAIL PROTECTED] - ICQ #3527685
"Now is not the Time for Third Chances,
It is a Time for New Beginnings."
- George W. Bush 8/3/00
******************VOTE BUSH / CHENEY 2000 *******************
