----- Original Message -----
From: Charlie Bell <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
To: <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Sent: Tuesday, May 22, 2001 3:54 AM
Subject: RE: W. on the Environment
.
>
> Not entirely accurate. There was a report a couple of years after, and
there
> was no significant increase in general mortality in the affected areas.
> Howwever, since then the picture has changed.
>
> There is a massive increase in childhood leukaemias, and the total life
> expectancy in the area has dropped.
>
Charlie, I looked at the 10 year report at:
http://www.nea.fr/html/rp/chernobyl/c05.html
It was the official 10 year report. So, this was not just a couple of years
afterwards. The did mention reports of anincrease in thyroid cancer, and
predicted about 350 total. As you know, the thyroid is one of the most
suceptable areas. However, an increase hasn't actually been measured. So,
probably my origional figure of a few hundred deaths...from discussions
months ago, not this discussion is a bit more conservative. But it is worth
noting that a statistically significant increase has not been found. The 15
year followup report at
http://www.nea.fr/html/rp/chernobyl/chernobyl-update.pdf
does not discuss additional deaths in the last 5 years.
Nothing that I've read indicates that a good solid study has found an
increase. Its worth noting that the first site I mentioned is the official
report of the agency the UN sent in to monitor, meaure, and deal with any
health problems.
As far as the drop in life expectency goes, one needs to understand the
overall tragic circumstances in the former Soviet Union. All the reports I
read mentioned the general decay of the health conditions. If it was due to
radiation, the upwind side should see a significantly smaller reduction of
life expectancy than the downwind side. From what I've seen, its pervasive.
> The story isn't over yet, not by a long way. :o(((
>
> However, as Dan goes on to point out, there were some unusual
circumstances
> involved in the Chernobyl incident.
>
> No, they weren't playing games. Yes, they were playing chicken with the
> limits, under orders. (I have a russian source on that one...)
>
OK, I spoke slightly imprecisely. Any idiot who would order such a
test.....
If you have studies that contradict these, Charlie, I'd be happy to look at
them and try to compare methodology. I tried to find the most authoritive
studies I could on the net.
Dan M.
