At 05:53 6-7-01 -0500, Adam Lipscomb wrote:
> > > > That's because both sides have a different approach. Assume someone
> > >reports
> > > > a significant increase in the number of cancer cases near a nuclear
>power
> > > > plant. The pro-side will say "there is no evidence that it is caused
>by
> > >the
> > > > power plant". The con-side however reasons: "radiation (like from a
> > >nuclear
> > > > plant) can cause cancer; if there aren't any other likely suspects
>that
> > > > might have caused this high number of cases, then logically it must
>have
> > > > been caused by the power plant".
> > >
> > >But then the pro side rebuts with, "Funny you should say that, since
>we've
> > >done a statistical study that indicates that there is not, in fact, a
> > >statistically significant increase in cancer rates near this plant, and
> > >here's the evidnece we gathered." The con-side then repeat, "But we've
>got
> > >these reported cases!" and they never offer any evidence beyond
>anecdotes.
> >
> > And when the con-site then asks the pro-site "if it wasn't the power
>plant,
> > then wat *did* cause this outbreak", the answer is either "coincidence" or
> > "er... er... er...".
>
>The pro side has offered a reply to that - it's in the data. The "cluster"
>of cases you're reporting is not really there. The cancer rates are not
>different from the rates elsewhere.
If you re-read the above quotes, you'll notice something strange: a
mysterious disappearance.
The scenario I depicted was "assume someone reports a significant increase
in the number of cancer cases near a nuclear power plant". The use of the
word "reports" indicates use of factual information (like medical records
from the local hospital). Despite those medical records, the pro-nuclear
side says "the cluster of cases you're reporting is not really there".
If medical records show a significant increase (say, three times the
national average), how can those cancer cases suddenly have disappeared
when a study is done to determine the cause? Magic?
NOTE: this scenario is not linked to any specific nuclear plant; it's a
scenario, a hypothetical situation where medical records show a large
increase in cancer cases. The cause is unknown, but some people consider a
nearby nuclear plant to be a likely suspect.
Jeroen
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