----- Original Message -----
From: "Andrew Crystall" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
To: <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Sent: Thursday, July 19, 2001 12:16 PM
Subject: Re: the authority of the marketplace
> On 19 Jul 2001, at 11:47, Dan Minette wrote:
>
> > > On 17 Jul 2001, at 20:51, Dan Minette wrote:
> > >
> > > <snip (about solar power)>
> > > > Projecting this type of improvement, we might have a competitive
> > > > power
> > > > system in 50 years. We may also hit the slow part of the growth
> > > > curve. My guess is that a fundamental breakthrough (like
> > > > transistors replacing vacuum tubes) will be needed for effective
> > > > solar power. That
> > >
> > > Lessie..you mean like growing them in zero-G, where you can get
> > > panels which are AT LEAST 3-4 times as efficient, and some trials
> > > suggest as much as 7-8 times....
> > >
> >
> > Since the best panels grown in a lab are about 30% efficient, I find
> > this very hard to believe. Indeed, if true, it would be a perpetual
> > motion machine of the first kind. :-) What is the cost per watt of
> > peak power if 100% efficient panels grown in space? If you assume a
> > factor of 10 improvement in the cost of shipping up to space and back,
> > what would the costs per watt of peak power be?
> >
> The lab-grown ones may be, but the commonly available ones are
> lucky to top 12%, I believe...
>
That's true. But space needs to be compared with lab, not commercial, IMHO.
Otherwise you would say
Space grown panels are equally to slightly better than panels made in labs,
which shows the small likelihood of cost effectiveness.
>
> And yes, I know it costs to ship to space and back. If you're going
> to ship it back and not use it to generate energy up there,
> anyway..lots of space industry could be useful and ship down
> things which ARE worth the money, like chemicals, until the proce
> drops enough to make shipping solar panels down worthwhile..
>
Well, that may be a long term (200+ years) solution, I don't know. I would
support research support in fields that might eventually give us cheap
boosts to space. But, that's not technology development on that time frame,
its basic science.
Dan M.
Dan M.
