Doug <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> asked:
My question has to be why would the President want to rush
to abrogate a long-standing treaty and possibly start a new
cold war in order to deploy a system that doesn't really
work yet and, according to many experts, never will have
much of a chance of working very well. ...
I think you are using the wrong measure of what might be `success'.
Bear in mind, the use of the Patriot anti-missile missiles in the Gulf
war was a success by the criteria used by the US government.
No, the Patriot missiles did not successfully stop Iraqi missiles from
falling on Israel. In a technical sense, they failed. They `didn't
really work.' But that was not the measure. The measure was whether
their use enabled the US to persuade Israel to stay out of the war.
In that they were successful.
None of the technical people I have read think that anyone can build a
technically successful US national anti-ballistic missile system in
less than 8 or 10 years. And many think the goal is impossible.
Consequently, the Bush administration has to have something else in
mind when they talk of deploying such a system in 4 or 5 years.
Some people say the program is merely a way to pay off campaign
contributors -- give contracts that pay money. But there are lots of
ways to do that that are less sensitive politically. I don't think
the Bush administration willing chooses controversial ways to pay off
people when it can do it in less controversial ways.
Instead, I think the purpose is simple and straightforward: to enable
the administration to defend Taiwan. The idea is to build something
that *might* work, and so to enable other military actions.
My understanding is that the US government fears that the mainland
Chinese government might want to bring Taiwan under its administration
soon. This contrasts with a statement by Mao Zedong, who once said
that `China can wait a century'. The Chinese government could follow
Mao -- if it waits for a generation or two, there is a good chance
that Taiwan will easily fall into its hands. The fear is that the
current Chinese government will not want to wait that long.
The issue is not rational. The fear is that many powerful people in
China want action now, not in 20 or 40 years. They feel that as the
leaders of the world's central nation, they should control a unified
country. And they should overcome the humiliations of the past. As a
friend of mine said, Taiwan is like a sore tooth for them.
The second part of the issue is that the mainland Chinese government
may well believe it can complete its unfinished business of a half
century without much risk to itself.
Mainland China does not have to undertake any overtly military
actions. It does not have to invade Taiwan. It can keep its risk
level low. This is very important for a government that hates risky
ventures.
Rather than start a war, all the mainland Chinese government has to do
is conduct more short range missile tests of the sort it did in 1996.
At that time, it fired a few missiles into the sea lanes leading to
Taiwan.
Suppose the mainland Chinese government tests missiles on a larger
scale than before?
Even though testing is not considered warfare, the effect would be to
blockade Taiwan. Most merchant ships would not sail to and from
Taiwan. The cost of insurance would be too high.
There are two counters to this kind of blockade. One, at the moment,
is fiction: the fiction is to use anti-missile missiles to shoot the
incoming Chinese missiles out of the sky. That will not work. Not
yet.
The other counter is to attack the missile launch sites on the Chinese
mainland. The Taiwanese cannot do this; they do not have the
capability. The US has the capability.
(Interestingly enough, just recently, a US magazine, "Aviation Week
and Space Technology", had a story about how the US navy added `off
the shelf' equipment to an old airplane that enabled the crew on the
airplane to coordinate US attacks against missile launchers on a
foreign coast... )
For the US to defend Taiwan against a blockade, it would have to
attack Chinese on the Chinese mainland.
Obviously, the Chinese would want to prevent this. The simplest way
for the Chinese is to deter the US.
The Chinese could `accidentally' launch a ballistic missile with a
dummy warhead that lands in Los Angelos. The Chinese government would
be very apologetic. They would say, `This is not an act of war. Oh
no. Just an accident.' The Chinese might even pay for damages; after
all, the US paid for damages to the Chinese embassy in Belgrade, which
it bombed.
The purpose of the launch would be to tell American voters -- in a
very persuasive manner -- that `a more serious event' might occur if
the US were to attack the Chinese mainland. This implicit Chinese
threat would put pressure on the US government to retreat, to decide
that it is best to let the Taiwanese deal with their problem
themselves.
On the other hand, suppose the US had a missile defence program.
There are two possibilities as to what might happen if the Chinese
`accidentally' launched a missile. One is that the anti-missile
missile actually worked. I think this is doubtful, but it is
possible. In this case, the Chinese threat fails.
The other possibility is that the US anti-missile missile fails. In
that case, the Bush administration blames the opposition Democrats for
not voting enough money for the anti-missile program and suggests
voting for Bush and other Republicans in the next election.
Either outcome is a win for the Bush administration.
And also, if the anti-missile missile fails, the Bush administration
could say that the next anti-missile missile would work; so the US
could attack the Chinese mainland without too much fear that the
Chinese would attack the US mainland.
Some would say that the technology is no better than the Patriot's
were during the Gulf war, but the US government would say that a dozen
years' development and billions of dollars have enabled them to create
a better system, one that works more of the time. And, of course, the
US would retaliate with nuclear weapons if they are used against the
US.
The US government hope is, I think, that the mainland Chinese
government will follow the US reasoning:
-- that the threat of the loss of one US city might prevent the US
from defending Taiwan,
-- but the expressed confidence that the US might be able to defend
itself agains such an attack, albeit with a low confidence level,
-- would convince the Chinese government that limiting a war to the
Chinese sphere would be safer for them than attacking the US
mainland;
-- and that because the US has this power, a blockade of Taiwan is a
bad idea.
Instead, the members of the Chinese government would decide that
wining and dining Taiwanese politicans, as they are doing already, is
a better strategy; and they should continue that pathway towards
reunification.
For anyone to believe in in the Bush administration, there have to be
some moderately successful missile tests, and the Chinese as well as
the American people need to learn about them. Guess what? There as
been at least one `moderately successful missile test', and the Bush
administration is talking about `briefing' the Chinese on the tests in
additon to reporting to Congress.
--
Robert J. Chassell [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Rattlesnake Enterprises http://www.rattlesnake.com
