Although it is still in its planning stages, the vague outlines of the
response to Tuesday's attacks are beginning to appear. The below is an
interpolation of what I have heard from various sources, the news media,
and some informed (and uninformed) speculation. I should say that what
_appears_ to be happening accords fairly closely with what I think _should_
happen, so some portions of this may be nothing more than wishful thinking.
Let me begin with a question. Suppose, as now seems likely, it is revealed
that the bombers were supported and funded by the intelligence services of
a foreign state or states - most likely Iraq. That would mean that the
_government_ of another country was an active participant in the murder of
5000 American citizens. Is there anyone on the list who does _not_ think
that that constitutes an Act of War against the United States? The last
time that the United States went to war was 1941. I am _not_ advocating
the wholesale killing of the citizens of these countries. We are the
United States. We don't do things like that. But there are other things
we can do. The following is an attempt to describe what I _think_ seems to
be in preparation, albeit only in very initial stages.
The Bush Administration is apparently putting significant pressure on the
Pakistani government to allow us overflight rights if we choose to strike
Afghanistan. We have already received permission from (I think) Tajikistan
to station special operations forces on the Afghan border. The
Administration appears to be preparing to launch something of a coordinated
strike. The Taliban have refused to hand over Bin Laden without conclusive
proof of his involvement. As supplying that would reveal the "sources and
methods" of American intelligence and make it much easier for other
terrorists to evade detection and pursuit, that will not, I expect, be
forthcoming, and it does not appear that the Administration is making much
in the way of efforts to persuade them any more. The Administration
appears to be considering an intense bombing campaign designed to cripple
the Afghan military and weaken the Taliban, combined with special
operations missions meant to capture and/or destroy as much of Bin Laden's
organization as possible. I guess, although I have no information to back
this up, that this would be accompanied by massive aid to organizations
fighting the Taliban in Afghanistan.
If it is revealed that Iraq sponsored the terrorist attacks, then we will
probably turn our attention to the government of Saddam Hussein. In all
likelihood that would take the form of an aerial attack upon all of the
assets of the Iraqi government. In essence we would seek to destroy the
Republican Guard, his weapons of mass destruction, and most of the
infrastructure of the Iraqi government - buildings, armories, things like
that. There do not yet, however, seem to be any concrete steps taken
towards this set of actions. They are contingent, as it were, upon
persuasive evidence that Iraq was involved in the attacks.
The Bush Administration also seems to have come to a decision - that we
need not limit our strikes to simply those responsible for this attack. In
essence, as Tom Friedman wrote today, we need to make a distinction between
states who sponsor terrorism and those who don't. Once that distinction is
made, Dep. Secretary of Defense Paul Wolfowitz explained what our actions
will be (I basically want to grow up to be Wolfowitz):
"It's not simply a matter of capturing people and holding them accountable,
but removing the sanctuaries, removing the support systems, ending states
who sponsor terrorism."
That last phrase is worth emphasizing. _Ending states_ who sponsor
terrorism. That seems to be what the Bush Administration is slowly
determining is justice for 5,000 innocent lives lost on the worst day in
American history.
God Bless America,
Gautam Mukunda
Administrator
Fifth Annual "Jubilee" Russian Investment Symposium
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs
John F. Kennedy School of Government
Harvard University
79 John F. Kennedy Street
Cambridge, MA 02138
Direct: +1.617.495.3043
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"I say to our enemies: We are coming. God may have mercy on you, but we
won't." - Senator John McCain
"Freedom is not free."
