> As in so many other sports, in Model UN, on any given weekend, any team can > beat any other team. > I would read your story differently. A talented team attempts to go to the next level. It first fails because it is not used to the newer higher level of competition inherent in a championship. It does better the next year. The third year it is upset in an early round of the playoffs (things do happen - I am not arguing against some luck) but then comes through in the championship. The way to distinghish luck from skill at the championship level is to look for persistent success. 7 games series are more likely to be decided by skill than shorter series. Success over many years is more significant than success in one year. The ultimate measure of success in any competition is whether or not you win the competition. That stats used to analyze success or failure are not the primary goal. They are meant to help you predict success or if you are building a team to find the elements that will help you build success. They are by definition secondary. In sports they are a source of great entertainment (and for us fans that is all that sports are about). But the goal of the athlete must be to win. Let me make another analogy. IQ tests. Controversy about these aside they do measure something. But having an IQ of 195 does not make you a genius. It tells others that you have basic intellectual skills that are much greater than the rest of the population but to be a! ! genius you have to do something of genius. I read somewhere that the average IQ of military geniuses was much lower than that of other types and the author implied that this proved you didn't have to be too smart to be a military genius. But this is completely false. It simply means that IQ tests do not successfully measure whatever it is that makes someone a military genius. This problem is referred to the reification of intelligence by S.Gould. So in sports it is important not to confuse the predictors of success with success. In baseball success is measured by winning baseball games and the ultimate success is winning the WS.
> > > > > __________________________________________________________ > John D. Giorgis - [EMAIL PROTECTED] - ICQ #3527685 > "Freedom itself was attacked today, and Freedom will be Defended." > -U.S. President George W. Bush, 09/11/01
