Ray said: > By this logic, supposing the first batch is killed, the probability of > surviving is zero! In other words, you are calculating the probability > of getting out alive _given_ that the third batch dies.
Well, sure. That's why I made the parenthetical comment about calculating the true probability. You can extend the partial argument to the full case by taking into account the probability of the game terminating each possible number of repetitions. Also, you can reduce the probability of the game terminating after a given trial to an arbitrarily low level and then the paradox becomes even more extreme. Rich VFP Need... More... Coffee...
