OK - I've changed my mind a little bit. I'm going to do this division by division, writing them up as I go, then sum up my overall predictions with a final post.
I'm going to try to look at each team in the order that I pick them to place. Note that I spend a lot of effort on the top team, but very much less as I go down the list, therefore I have less faith in those predictions. The intensity with which I don't care who finishes 5th in the NL Central is quite remarkable :-) AL East: New York - Although it doesn't sound like it from some of my on-list posts, I actually _don't_ think that the Yankees have bought championships the last few years. From 1994 or so they have been one of the two best run franchises in baseball and that has not, so far as I can tell, changed. _This_ year, though, they pretty obviously _are_ trying to buy a championship, between Jason Giambi, David Wells, Sterling Hitchcock, Rondell White, and Steve Karsay. It will probably work. Giambi is now the best 1st baseman in the majors, assuming Frank Thomas doesn't bounce back all the way, replacing the extremely mediocre (at best) Tino Martinez. Mate this with one of the three best shortstops in baseball - I refuse to choose between Nomar and Jeter, although Alex Rodriguez is clearly a lot better than both, probably the best center fielder (assuming Andruw Jones doesn't finally grow up), one of the best catchers, a pretty good third baseman (almost certainly better than Brosius, anyways), a presumably improving Alfonso Soriano, an excellent left field platoon of Rondell White and John Vanderwal, and the arrival of Nick Johnson, probably the best hitting prospect since Frank Thomas and you give the Yankees what they haven't had since 1998 - a superb offense. As for their pitching - well, many of their pitchers are at the age when rapid collapse happens, and, well, who am I kidding? The single most important indicator as to pitcher longevity is strikeout rate - it overwhelms everything else, including age. The Yankee pitchers are (I believe) doing just fine in that department. Finally, the superb Yankee farm system and the infinite Yankee financial resources gives them more insulation from those pitching injuries than any other team can have. If someone blows out a rotator cuff the Yankees, virtually alone in baseball, can go out and trade for someone without batting an eye. Joe Torre is still the best tactical manager in baseball, and he still has the ultimate weapon in Mariano Rivera. Baseball does not have a revenue-sharing problem. Baseball has a _Yankees_ problem. Baseball has one superbly run team with a practically infinite revenue stream, and everyone else. When Brian Cashman retires or gets driven out by George, New York may regress back to the mean. Until then, I don't see it happening. Boston - Pedro Martinez - maybe the best pitcher in history. Nomar Garciaparra - one of the ten best shortstops in history. Manny Ramirez - a Hall of Fame caliber right fielder. This team _should_ be good. It has the misfortune of trying to compete with New York, having a GM with people skills that make George Steinbrenner look like Mother Teresa, a history of disfunctional clubhouse cultures, and so on. Give Billy Beane this team and the Yankees would be eating his dust in 5 years. But it's not happening with Dan Duquette. A good team, but (like the 1996 Seattle Mariners) one that just doesn't have the supporting cast in place, and nothing to speak of in the farm system to try and play with. Toronto - A team on the rise. J.P. Ricciardi is going to make Toronto a team to reckon with very, very fast. Quite possibly next year, almost certainly the year after that. But not 2002. It's just too soon to repair the damage Gord Ash has done. A team with a future, but not just yet. Carlos Delgado will be one of the better first basemen in baseball, but not nearly as good as he was in 2000. Jose Cruz, Shannon Stewart, Vernon Wells, and the vastly overrated Raul Mondesi will give them a good outfield/DH rotation, but hardly a great one. They have too many OBP sinks in the lineup - Homer(less) Bush being perhaps the prime example. It will take time to fix that, and until then they just won't be able to go over the top. Nonetheless, the spread of Billy Beane's proteges means that there's now one more team in baseball that's capable of running with the wolves. The sheep (Kansas City, Baltimore, and so on) should beware. Tampa Bay - This team has a little bit of talent. But, umm, not much. At some point a few years ago aliens appear to have kidnapped Ben Grieve. Could someone please alert the Men in Black to go looking for him? This team's basic problem is that it drafts players who look good in their uniforms. That's nice, but it has very little to do with playing baseball. It has a phenomenally athletic farm system - lots of people with blinding speed in the 100 yard dash who can throw lasers from right field and hit the ball a mile in batting practice. But it doesn't seem to have anyone who can tell a ball from a strike or teach its prospects to do the same. Until then, it's going to be stuck in loserdom. Baltimore - My home town team <sob>. I've pretty much stopped following them now that Cal has retired. I would have no objections rooting for a team that doesn't win. I just can't bring myself to get caught up in rooting for a team run by idiots. Baltimore has nothing. It has a pathetic lineup at the Major League level and a farm system so barren it beggars description. As long as Camden Yards remains the most perfect place imaginable to watch a baseball game I'll go there when I'm home, but that's it. What a disaster. If I could pick them for sixth I would. I'm actually not sure which team will be worse - Baltimore or Tampa Bay. I think they'll probably race for 100 losses. It's about the only baseball excitement there will be for either team, I'm guessing. Gautam (Is this why I can't get a date?) "Baseball Fanatic" Mukunda
