At 16:55 26-10-2002 -0700, Deborah Harrell wrote:
I think not. If the US goes in alone (without UN support), the fundamentalists will see the US as "American imperialists". If the US goes in *with* UN support, the fundamentalists will still see the US as "American imperialists", but will also see the UN as a powerless institution that does whatever the US wants it to do. That may not be entirely correct, but I doubt the fundamentalists will make that distinction.On the other hand, if the UN states that unless SH complies with all prior resolutions, he will be made to comply by force, cries of "American imperialists" will have much less credibility; I think the chance of widespread street uprisings will be much less.
Then you do not want to be anywhere near Israel. Chances are that the Arab nations, despite any differences they may have, will join forces (following the reasoning "an attack against one of us is an attack against all of us") and strike back at Israel. Personally, it would not surprise me if they would then attack Israel and keep going till the State of Israel is nothing but a memory.I think Israel is a much more likely target, as it is closer; a hit on Israel would also be extremely inflammatory - do you foresee Sharon asking the US to retaliate _for_ him? What will happen when Israeli fighters and bombs are launched - even though in national self-defense - at an Arab state?
Jeroen "Make love, not war" van Baardwijk
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