----- Original Message ----- From: <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> To: <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> Sent: Tuesday, November 19, 2002 2:33 AM Subject: RE: Missile Defense in a New Strategic Environment
> > -----Oorspronkelijk bericht----- > > Van: John D. Giorgis [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]] > > Verzonden: dinsdag 19 november 2002 5:36 > > Aan: [EMAIL PROTECTED] > > Onderwerp: Re: Missile Defense in a New Strategic Environment > > > However, some list members rather voiciferously predicted that > > withdrawing from the ABM Treaty would produce an arms race. > > And who is to say that it will *not* happen? Actually, the question is whether the withdrawl will precipitate such an arms race. If one starts 10 years from now, it would be hard to pin it on this action. When events have triggered an arms race in the past, there have been responses, at least in the language and typically within the budgets of other countries within a year. Russia stated that it was a mistake, but no risk to their country. China has had a stronger negative reaction, but has given no real indication that it plans on any significant counter. Basically, the US has stated that it will not deploy a sufficently large ABM system to stop an attack by China or Russia. As long as this is understood as a valid statement, there is no real inducement for either country to build many more weapons. >America's withdrawal was quite recent; a full-blown arms race does not develop over the course of a >mere few months. Its been about a year since the withdrawl (12-13-01), and there isn't any hint of the start of a nuclear arms race. The reality is that neither country can afford to match the US in military spending. There is no real inducement for these countries to spend billions that they don't have on nuclear weapons unless their security is directly threatened. The reality is that the US is simply throwing its money away here. Money that should be spent on systems that will defend the US. Dan M. _______________________________________________ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
