<scratching head with a puzzled look> Apparently it's only 11K...even though in my Inbox it says 26... Go figure!
> Two writers explain why Science Ficion has predicted > so much of the future > �Anything one man can imagine, other men can make > real,� Jules Verne wrote > in the 19th century. Along with H.G. Wells, Verne > created the > science-fiction genre-and with it a mystique that > science-fiction writers > have special powers of prognostication about >technology. Verne, himself, anticipated atomic-powered > submarines in Twenty Thousand > Leagues Under the Sea and interplanetary travels in > From the Earth to the > Moon Wells wrote about an atomic bomb in 1914. > Modern sci-fi writers have extended this tradition, > envisioning cyberspace > and cellphones long before the actual things took on > those names. > Two modern practitioners of the craft-David Brin and > Bruce Sterling-say > science fiction can help penetrate the murk of the > future partly because > writers follow technological possibilities to their > dramatic extremes, > taking them further than most people are > constitutionally capable of doing. > Sterling has seen the phenomenon first-hand. Eleven > years ago, in �We See > Things Differently,� he described a suicidal Islamic > terrorist who commits > high-profile murders in the U.S. in the 21st century. > The lines between fiction and prediction sometimes > blur. Sterling is known > for his many science-fiction novels, including his > latest, Zeitgeist but he > also serves on various futurist committees. Brin has > written numerous short > stories and novels, including The Postman which was > turned into a big-budget > motion picture. But Brin is also on the development > boards of a number of > software companies, including SAP AG (www.sap.com > <http://www.sap.com>), the > big database provider. > Neither claims that sci-fi writers� successful > descriptions of the future > would seem remarkable if subjected to rigorous > analysis of their hit rate. > Still, in the dialogue that follows, both offer some > intriguing ideas on how > to develop scenarios that may shed some light on > tomorrow�s marketplace. > BRUCE STERLING: Science-fiction writers often > predict the present, focusing > on some little-known thing and casting it into the > future. > Writers also sometimes emphasize an issue that is > common knowledge but that > society can�t admit to itself. For instance, most > people can�t talk about > venereal diseases. If a writer can think about a > topic like this > objectively, he might imagine that in societies > where people couldn�t talk > about AIDS, such as sub-Saharan Africa and South > Africa, the disease would become an epidemic. > The truth is that what looks like a prediction often > is really just playing off people�s ignorance. > DAVID BRIN: At the same time, science fiction does > take some pride in its > prognostications. There are times when some things > we write about really do come to pass. > STERLING: One example occurred just recently. This > past fall, a special > adviser for cyberspace security was appointed by > President Bush. A > science-fiction writer imagined that position back > in the 1980s. Science > fiction has influenced the missile defense program. > The idea has taken root > so firmly in some influential people�s minds that > the program has survived > for ages even though it has no connection to > reality. Star Wars has as much > to do with American national security as lucky > horseshoes. It will never > work. Even if it did, terrorists would bring > warheads over in container ships and trucks. > Historically, there are any number of things that > science-fiction writers > imagined long before they came about. H.G. Wells > wrote about the atomic bomb in 1914 in The World Set > Free <http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/1576462765/ref=ase_diamondtechnologA/103-0336587-1846249> > Cleve Cartmill described an atomic weapon in detail > more than a year before it was actually used. > In 1869, Edward Everett Hale wrote about an > artificial satellite orbiting > the earth, in a story called �The Brick Moon.� In > 1945, Arthur Clarke wrote > about satellites used for communication. There is > even a type of satellite > orbit that is sometimes called the Clarke orbit, > after him. > In the 19th century, Jules Verne wrote about space > travel and the submarine. > In 1904, Rudyard Kipling predicted airmail postage. > Hugo Gernsback was very > big on a thing called television in �Ralph 124c > 41+�-a bizarre story written in 1911-1912. > Sci-fi writers wrote about computer worms and > viruses back in 1975. > Cellphones appear in Robert Heinlein�s stories as > early as the 1950s. In his > story �Waldo,� published in 1942, Heinlein was one > of the first to talk > about remote manipulators, the devices people now > use to handle radioactive > materials. People put their hands in these > glove-like devices, and these big > robot arms spring up and follow your movements. > BRIN: Now they are being used in surgery. Heinlein�s > predictions for the > remote manipulators had to wait until computers > arrived. It will take > another five years or so for the Waldo age of > teleoperations to truly emerge. > STERLING: As far as what is yet to come, I�m > interested to see what happens > with ubiquitous computing [the notion that tiny > electronic chips may wind up > everywhere]. I wrote a story about the idea > recently, called �User-Centric.� > The central idea is that people can embed locator > chips in common devices > and track their movement in real time. > BRIN: I believe we are heading in that direction. > The topic of monitoring devices is fascinating. In > both my fiction and > nonfiction work, I explore the proliferation of > cameras that record our > movements. A decade ago, in my fiction book, Earth <http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/055329024X/ref=ase_diamondtechnologA/103-0336587-1846249> > I predicted that people might be walking around in > glasses that could look up information about other > people as folks walked > nearby, based on a program that recognizes their > faces and then supplies > their names and a bit of a profile. The program > could include what these > people are looking for in potential mates or even > include unfavorable > opinions about them by their ex-spouses. Imagine > people walking down the > street, glancing at each other and bursting out > laughing. Instead of the > technology being Orwellian, it may be weirdly > democratic. The effect might > be rude, but at least it would be unrestricted and > available to everyone. > STERLING: Facial recognition software is a big > stinking deal right about > now, because of the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks. > Still, the gizmos imagined in science fiction aren�t > necessarily the ones > with the most market pull. For example, science > fiction has traditionally > been obsessed with human-shaped androids and > humanoid robots. While there is > real demand for robots, the demand is not for > anything shaped like your next-door neighbor. > We science-fiction writers retail a sense of wonder. > We always want to talk > about the rising star moment. We don�t want to > explore the boring, everyday > device or yesterday�s technology. But wonder is a > very brief emotion. > BRIN: That�s right. Very few science-fiction authors > portrayed computers > advancing the way they did. They failed to predict > the personal computer > because a giant civic computer in the center of town > is far better for a > dramatic story. If the big computer is evil, it > gives characters something > to fight. If it is good, it gives them a terrific > prize to protect. No > wonder authors never created a different scenario > and never imagined a million small computers. > STERLING: As sci-fi writers, we tease out the > dramatic aspects of events and > don�t give dry, probabilistic assessments of future > events. There are times when we are asked to give > straightforward assessments of > future events. I just did one recently about where I > thought political and > military events might go in the short term. But > there is no heroine, no love > interest in that. There is no rising tension, > climax, and d�nouement, no > reason to keep turning pages. That�s why it is only > two pages long. > BRIN: Science fiction has long interacted with > scientists, artists, and > underground eccentrics. Now there are times when > sci-fi writers mingle with > the military and business. We�re on boards and even > act as advisers to > corporations. I am on the development board for > several small software > companies, as well as for SAP. I even filed for my > first patent recently, > for a new approach to chat software. > STERLING: I haven�t started filing patents yet. I�m > afraid of the day some > notion of mine goes into production. You�re right, > though. I spend time > hanging out with the Global Business Network > [www.gbn.org > <http://www.gbn.org>], which is now a part of the > Monitor Group > [www.monitor.com <http://www.monitor.com>] of > corporate futurists. > BRIN: Someone once said there are two ways of > dealing with the future: > anticipation and resiliency. These qualities are > modeled by the two major > software industry centers in America: the East > Coast, particularly Boston, > and the West Coast, centered in Silicon Valley. > In the East, customers are mainly made up of > government and commercial > banks. Software companies must anticipate problems > before they release a > product because they don�t want ATMs spitting money > out on the street. So > they try to anticipate all the bugs before they ship > software to their > clients. The attitude in Silicon Valley, on the > other hand, is, �What a cool > idea! Let�s do an experiment and have customers tell > us why it doesn�t > work!� That�s the resiliency approach, which > depends on a rapid and agile > response to cope with disaster. > It turns out that any reasonable approach for > dealing with the future needs > generous dollops of both anticipation and resiliency. > STERLING: Given the events of the last few months, I > expect we�ll see a > change in how business thinks about the future. > There was a long period > during the 1990s when people almost deliberately > stopped thinking about the > long term. The sentiment was: �Just give me the > demo.� Or �Build it and they > will come.� I believe that epoch has ended. > We�re now in for an era of a global civil society, > which will involve more > anticipation and control. The idea of tossing out > innovations and letting > the devil take them where he may is probably gone. > Because we do have a devil. > > Sterling can be reached at [EMAIL PROTECTED] > <mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]>. Brin > can be reached at [EMAIL PROTECTED] <mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]> __________________________________________________ Do you Yahoo!? Yahoo! Mail Plus � Powerful. Affordable. Sign up now. http://mailplus.yahoo.com _______________________________________________ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
