At 12:12 PM 12/29/02 -0800, Doug Pensinger wrote:
Marvin Long, Jr. wrote:way doesn't strike me as the obvious choice.You all may be right, at least at first. We all know that rich people get to play with new kinds of toys first, that's nothing new. Also I didn't realize that they were that heavy - I thought that they had advertised that it could be lifted easily into the trunk of a car.
Now, maybe the Segway will be rare enough and nimble enough that it
doesn't cause many problems. And I can see that it might be very useful
on, say, a corporate campus or in a large warehouse or on a lightly
trafficked sidewalk. (But back when I worked inventory in a large
warehouse, my little used bicycle did a very fine job for me). The technology is certainly cool...but as others have said, the only people I can imagine using it at this point are the rude-driving, cell-phone yakking, SUV set.
In any case, any technology that offers an alternative to something as inefficient as the automobile should be given a chance to succeed. Bikes are cool, I use mine to commute regularly to and from the train, but there is a huge segment of the population that will never get on a bike for one reason or another. Perhaps this offers an alternative that those people would use. And maybe a fuel cell version of the thing would be lighter? And perhaps there will be a version that will allow people to sit rather than stand.
I was thinking about this subject earlier this morning, in particular asking myself "How could I (or someone like me) use one?"
If it goes about 10 mph, unless it's a heckuva lot more comfortable to stand on for long periods than it looks like it would be, it would be limited to trips of less than, oh 5 miles. (8 km for Alberto.) So where do I go frequently that is less than 5 miles away?
Not to teach: the classes I teach are scattered over three different campuses separated by about 20 miles or more from each other, and I have to carry all my junk from one campus to another. And I would have no use for it once I get to campus: most of my on-campus traveling consists of unloading the car before class and reloading it afterwards, or leading a group of students out to an unpaved area away from the buildings and their lights to get a look at the sky (while hauling a telescope which weighs about the same as the Segway, plus other equipment). And on those relatively infrequent occasions when I have to go to another building, not only is it usually fairly close, but there are hills and/or steps and curbs that would have to be negotiated, plus the fact that I am usually carrying something at least one way.
Not to visit friends or family: those fall into two groups (1) the ones that live up, down, or across the street and are at most a few minutes' walk away, and (2) those who live across town, across the state, or across the country and are at least a half-hour away by car.
Not to church: while it is indeed about five miles away (little more than ten minutes by car, since it is about 3-4 blocks from the interstate off-ramp), I have this vision of a typical family going to church, each one on his or her own individual Segway, with the kids continually wandering off every which way. (About like trying to herd cats.) And if it rains? An umbrella won't be enough to keep the rain off your Sunday best. A poncho probably won't be enough to keep you dry. And after half an hour or so in one of those rubber rain suits, your suit or dress will probably look no better than if you had gotten wet.
So where do I go that is more than a few hundred feet from my door but within 5 miles? Mostly, to the store. Again, there is no way I see to bring home a load of groceries on a Segway. I suppose I could use it if I am just going to the bank, to get a newspaper, or to get a haircut, but I usually combine those with other shopping trips or do them on the way to school. There is one multi-plex within that distance range. I don't know where I could park the thing once I got there, though, and it would take a lot of trips to the movies on the scooter rather than in a car to pay for a Segway.
The main place I can see that it could be useful is in the Northeast, where every morning a lot of commuters must drive from their homes to the train station and leave their cars there all day (or have their spouses drive them to the station, then keep the car, if that is a possibility with their schedules), then may need to go several blocks once they get off the train in the city, then reverse the whole process in the evening. (And even there: what if it rains?) Granted, that may be an area where they need it. In the rest of the country, though, it's hard to imagine it replacing the family car, or even the second car. (And the reality is that when we need a car, a lot of us scour the want ads looking for used cars which can be purchased for less than the price of a Segway . . . )
In summary, then, the reason I don't see it replacing the car in most of the US is that the average family (or even single person) needs probably at least once a week a vehicle which can carry a significant amount of cargo and/or kids, in which you can sit comfortably and go fast enough to make trips of at least several tens of miles, and won't get rained on. For most people, a vehicle which costs $5K and does none of these is ludicrous.
BTW: How well does it do on hills? I live on a hill which is hard to get to the top of when it snows unless you have a 4WD (which most of the year is also an expensive luxury). Fortunately, I live about halfway up the street, which is just where it starts to get really steep. Anyone who lives at the top of the street and rides a bicycle either pushes it the last few hundred feet or must have some inhumanly well-developed leg muscles (and I haven't seen any neighbors who meet that description--in fact, a good number of them are older than I am and are subject to the frailties of age).
--Ronn! :)
I always knew that I would see the first man on the Moon.
I never dreamed that I would see the last.
--Dr. Jerry Pournelle
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