http://www.economist.com/printedition/displayStory.cfm?Story_ID=1567131
Iraq's humanitarian needs If things go badly... Feb 6th 2003 >From The Economist print edition The set-up in Iraq renders its civilians particularly vulnerable in war MANY aspects of the war hanging over Iraq are unpredictable but one is not: the unusual vulnerability of the civilian population. There are two reasons for this. First, about 60% of the population, or 16m people, are 100% dependent on the central government for their basic needs; they survive only because the government provides them with a food ration each month. Second, after two wars, decades of misgovernment and 12 years of exacting sanctions, there is no fat to rely on. In last year's Afghan war, as in the 1991 Gulf war, more people died from the indirect results of the conflict than from the fighting itself. And Iraqis now are far less able to get by. In 1991, most of them were in work, enjoyed fair health and had material assets; now, more than 50% are thought to be unemployed and most people have sold just about everything they once had (visitors gauge this from the markets, where the goods for sale are increasingly dilapidated). Though conditions have improved since the oil-for-food programme was set up in 1996, the report of an International Study Team*, academics and doctors with mainly Canadian backing, that visited Iraq at the end of last month found how vulnerable Iraqis still are. Most face grinding poverty, and children, in particular, are terrified at the prospect of war. Estimates by Unicef, the UN's childrens' agency, show close to a quarter of children under five suffering from malnutrition, some of it acute. A leaked report reveals that the UN is working on the calculation that, in war, some 5.4m Iraqis will need emergency help from outside, with small children needing it most. The World Health Organisation's contingency plans allow for the emergency treatment of 100,000 people injured by bombing, and for another 400,000 who may need medical aid if they cannot get food or clean water or shelter. The problems, already vast, would swell exponentially if the fighting is prolonged and people flee the cities. Food is the prime concern. The Iraqi rationing system works very efficiently (its database also allows the regime to keep tabs on everybody). In the northern Kurdish enclave, the food.flour, pulses, cooking oil, milk powder, all of it imported.is distributed by the World Food Programme (WFP). In the rest of the country, it is distributed monthly by local merchants. Since August, the government has been providing an extra month of rations in advance to allow stockpiling. But supplies are running out, and people have not even been getting their full ration. Moreover, there is much anecdotal evidence, particularly in poor areas, of people selling their extra rations for medicine and other basics. The collapse of central government could bring distribution to a stop. So could bombing, if it disrupts transport: for instance, Iraq is trisected by two rivers that flow north-south, so blown-up bridges would halt all east-west traffic. Another danger: if power stations are blown up, it could mean the collapse of water and wastewater systems, which, in turn, would have profound consequences for public health. Iraq's water and sewerage have never fully recovered from the crippling of the electricity system in 1991, plus neglect and the difficulty in getting spare parts and chlorine. Some of the water-treatment plants, and the big hospitals, have standby generators, but only 10% of the sewage-pumping stations have them. In any event, says Oxfam, a British charity, most of the generators do not work. Even as things are, the power system is crumbling, with only 60% of the country's needs being met. Further destruction could be calamitous. Both the UN and non-governmental organisations (NGOs) have started to face up to the crisis, but have difficulty planning for an emergency that has not yet happened and which nearly all hope can be averted. Co-ordination has to be low-key. The WFP, already overwhelmed by the famines in Africa, is pre-positioning food stocks in the region which it calculates would feed 900,000 people for three months (as with all UN agencies, its expatriate staff would be pulled out of Iraq once war started). Appeals for money also have to be low-key. So far, the WFP has had .informal. pledges for only $7m. Eclipsing this sort of money are America's multi-billion-dollar schemes for reconstructing a post-Saddam Iraq. Working with a civilian UN administrator, America plans to flood the country with food and medicine and to rebuild the infrastructure it may be about to destroy.much of it painstakingly rebuilt after the bombing in 1991. The NGOs, which have been gathering in Jordan as the expected gateway for aid, were this week given a pep talk by senior American officers. They were told that an American Humanitarian Operations Centre may be established in Jordan or Kuwait, and that .safe havens. would be established for NGOs in Iraq. The agencies were uncertain, calculating the problems of operating under America's military umbrella. Aid and tanks are uneasy partners, and they wonder whether they would be allowed to operate outside the safe havens, In the end, if America occupies Iraq, the agencies will have no choice, and the dollars will be welcomed. The Americans claim that they are planning intensively for the short term as well. They had better be right. .Our Common Responsibility: The Impact of a New War on Iraqi Children.. International Study Team, January 30th 2003. (For the electronic version, see www.warchild.ca). -- "Erik Reuter" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> http://www.erikreuter.net/ _______________________________________________ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
