--- Dan Minette <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > I can't see how you read this. Its not the war > that's hard to win, its the > peace afterwards. I see plenty of opportunities for > people to point out > where mistakes are made. Do you really think that > setting up even a > quasi-democracy with a middle class will be that > straightforward? No one > is arguing that the US will lose the war, they are > arguing what will happen > after the US wins. > > Dan M.
First, I think a lot of people are arguing that the war will turn into a bloodbath. I don't think civilian casualties will be very high. Partly because the American military will go to great efforts to prevent them, and partly because I don't think anyone in Iraq really wants to fight for Saddam very much. Whether they are or are not, unfortunately, will have no effect on European public opinion, for two major reasons: 1. The people protesting the war don't give a damn about Iraqi civilians - they're just a prop to attack the US with and 2. In Afghanistan there were well under 1000 civilian casualties by most estimates, but idiot war protesters still go around talking about more than 4000 - a made up number based on the Taliban's own figures. Incidentally, the profound racism of the opponents of the war - people who basically claim that Arabs don't want to be free, deserve to live under the rule of someone like Saddam, and that a single American/British life isn't worth freeing millions of Arabs - is something that I haven't seen explored nearly enough. Those of us in favor of freedom should not be afraid to name freedom's enemies as the bigots that they actually are. I actually think that setting up a democracy in Iraq is more likely than in any other Arab country - much more so than Afghanistan, actually. Iraq is the only Arab country with a real democratic movement (albeit one that is not inside the country itself), it is probably the most secular Arab country, and it has oil revenues sufficient to give it a functioning economy. I actually think that the US occupation of Iraq will be much shorter than you think, largely because we don't have any other choice - we _can't_ run Iraq for more than a few months, because doing so for any longer will be too easily twisted by our enemies. What we're going to end up doing, I think, is setting up a democratic government and then acting as security guarantors for Iraq's borders, while pumping aid and advice into the country. That's a model that might actually work pretty well. The Kurds, for example, seem to be in favor of it. I just can't bring myself to believe, even in my most cynical moments, that Arab culture and democracy are incompatible, and Iraq is the Arab country most likely to democratize successfully. If it can't work there, it can't work anywhere. Second, I think you underestimate the extent to which memories are short term. There is very little coverage of what is actually going on in Afghanistan right now in the world media. That's partly because the situation is better now than it probably ever has been in Afghan history - and the BBC couldn't report that, God forbid - but mostly because once the big dramatic events pass, people tend to go back to the quotidian events of their lives. If we end up with an even semi-civilized government in Iraq that doesn't attempt to periodically conquer its neighbors or acquire nuclear weapons, then that will probably be a net plus. If the Bush Administration takes advantage of Chirac's recent foolishness to cement the countries of Eastern Europe into the American orbit and forever cripple French power in the European Union - then that will secure our position as well. As for British polling data, let me point you to: http://chicagoboyz.blogspot.com/2003_02_01_chicagoboyz_archive.html#89299768 I would also point out that polls are, historically, subject to very rapid change in wartime. If the war lasts a week, then Blair will spike in the polls - probably quite a lot. Remember how poorly Margaret Thatcher was doing before the Falklands, and how much she rocketed upwards after that display of British military skill. Failure, if it comes, will be very slow and debatable, and people will move on in their concerns. I do not think it will come, but if it does, it will be far in the future. But the initial victory - that will be sudden, and public, and the eyes of the world will be focused on British and American soldiers bringing freedom to Iraq, and that's the image that will have the most power. Gautam __________________________________________________ Do you Yahoo!? Yahoo! Shopping - Send Flowers for Valentine's Day http://shopping.yahoo.com _______________________________________________ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
