----- Original Message ----- From: <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> To: <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> Sent: Wednesday, February 19, 2003 10:23 AM Subject: RE: EU Warns Iraq It Faces 'Last Chance'
> > -----Oorspronkelijk bericht----- > > Van: Dan Minette [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]] > > Verzonden: woensdag 19 februari 2003 16:55 > > Aan: Killer Bs Discussion > > Onderwerp: Re: EU Warns Iraq It Faces 'Last Chance' > > > >The world economy runs on oil, > > > > Oil sales are about 1.4% of world GDP, for the average oil price of > > about $24/barrel over the last few years. > > I wasn't referring to the influence of the oil price on the world GDP. What > I meant was that oil is of vital importance to keeping the economy up and > running. Think of all the purposes we use oil for (FREX, production of > goods, and transport), and then think what would happen if the needed flow > of oil would suddenly stop -- and think what would happen if that flow would > still not have been restarted by the time you run out of your current stock > of oil. > > The effects would be disastrous. Then, there would only be a problem if one force were to gain control of a very sizeable fraction of world oil production. The Arab oil embargo of 1973 was at a time when the world economy was much more dependant on oil, and it did have a noticeable impact. However, it was not enough of a weapon to force the West to its knees. So, even if the US were to gain control of Iraq as a means of controlling the oil in Iraq, cutting off the oil would have minimal impact. As is happening now, the slack would be taken up. Indeed, OPEC is restricting the sale of oil as we speak, so there is still slack left. The spike in oil prices is a reflection of nervousness, not the critical nature of Iraqi oil. No hard feeling Jeroen, but I know oil economics rather well. Dan M. _______________________________________________ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
