Erik Reuter wrote:
>
> On Sun, Feb 23, 2003 at 04:11:59PM -0600, Julia Thompson wrote:
>
> > If it were the Congressional district I live in, I doubt that the
> > current Congressman would have much to worry about from that group,
> > because the demographics of this district would likely have a much
> > smaller representation than the 10% given above. If I lived in
> > the Congressional district Marvin lives in, I would be a lot more
> > concerned, because there's a much higher proportion of them than the
> > 10%. Then again, *that* Congressman feels more closely to the way
> > that 10% feels than *my* Congressman does, so he has less to fear
> > from that group than a challenger probably would. (These are the two
> > members of Congress I know the most about off the top of my head.)
> >
> > Beyond that, at the state or national level, I'd go with the study on
> > how likely they were to vote before I changed my actions with respect
> > to their opinion.
> >
> > Politics gets to be a very pragmatic game. Figuring out just who
> > you're dealing with goes a long way.
>
> Julia, you are forgetting the most important thing: the group I was
> talking about holds relatively extreme peace views. They are actually
> outnumbered more than 2 to 1 by people that hold the opposite hawkish
> views. While I'm sure it isn't exactly zero-sum, it is probably close --
> if you court one group you lose the other.
For congressional districts, if there's a bias one way or the other, you go
with the group more heavily weighted in your district.
I think that Marvin's congressman would do well to court the peaceniks. My
congressman would do a lot better to court the hawks. I'm basing this on
what sort of people are more likely to live in each district.
Julia
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