Arming Saudi Arabia today, may, in a couple decades,
be looked upon like our arming of Hussein in 1980 and
the mujaheddin in Afghanistan.
JDG
March 4, 2003, 9:30 a.m.
Blowback Alert
Saudi Arabia is next.
By Gerald M. Steinberg
National Review
Officials in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia have
announced that once the war with Iraq is over, Western
troops � particularly the Americans � would receive a
letter of thanks and a return ticket home.
On the face of it, this seems like a good idea � a
rare example of a "win-win" situation in the Middle
East. Few Americans enjoy spending time on distant
desert bases protecting a corrupt royal family and its
retainers, who in turn resent this evidence of their
own weakness. At the same time, the fanatical Wahhabis
that control religion and society in Saudi Arabia
would cheer the departure of the infidels. Indeed,
this is the core demand of Osama bin Laden, the
onetime Saudi citizen who founded al Qaeda and planned
the mass terror of 9/11. Heeding bin Laden's call, 15
more Saudis were recruited to carry out the attacks
against the World Trade Center and the Pentagon �
helped along also by substantial Saudi funding and
religious justification. Thus by ridding themselves of
the "impure forces" on "holy Islamic ground," the
Saudi rulers can also appease bin Laden.
Indeed, once Saddam is gone and the threat from Iraq
is destroyed (at least for now), the main
justification for the presence of foreign military
forces will also disappear. When Saddam invaded Kuwait
in 1990 � and threatened to move against Saudi Arabia
and seize its oil wells � American troops were
dispatched immediately. Although a post-Saddam Middle
East will still pose many threats to the Saudi royal
family and its oil income, the security situation
should improve, and, in any case, this will no longer
be America's problem. With Iraqi oil back on line and
available after the war, any disruptions in Saudi
production will have less impact.
However, the departure of the American and other
forces from Saudi Arabia could create new and more
menacing difficulties for the U.S., Israel and other
countries. If the huge arsenals of the world's most
advanced weapons become available to radical groups
and Islamic terrorists, the result could be a
catastrophic case of "blowback." Following the war
against the Soviet Union in Afghanistan, guerrillas
who had been trained and armed by the U.S. (including
bin Laden) turned their weapons against their former
benefactors. The potential blowback from the Saudi
arsenal of advanced aircraft and missiles would be
many times more devastating.
The scope of this threat should not be underestimated.
For over 30 years, Saudi defense officials (princes of
the royal family) have been converting a significant
portion of their oil income into weapons and bases.
Multi-billion-dollar deals to acquire large numbers of
the most advanced combat aircraft, tanks, missiles,
and other systems were signed and implemented over the
years, making Saudi Arabia one of the most highly
armed countries in the world. In the early 1980s � and
despite strenuous objections from Israel and within
the U.S. � the Reagan administration agreed to sell
AWACS airborne battle stations to the Saudis, as well
as F-15s (over 150 of these advanced fighter-bombers
are now in the Saudi inventory) and tactical missiles
(such as the Maverick and Sidewinder). Large and
modern bases were also built � including the Prince
Sultan complex south of Riyadh, complete with a
15,000-foot runway and advanced air-traffic control,
navigation, meteorological, and communications
systems. The additional weapons purchased from France
and Britain also should not be overlooked in this
assessment.
Throughout this period, successive American
governments rejected concerns that this arsenal could
be turned against the U.S. and Israel. (While the
Saudis are often portrayed as pragmatic and passive,
they are at the forefront of anti-Israel incitement
and anti-Semitism, and have sent symbolic forces to
fight in past Arab-Israeli wars.) Repeated
reassurances were given that these weapons could not
be operated without American permission and
cooperation.
But if the U.S. and other Western forces depart, huge
stockpiles of some of the most advanced weapons in the
world would no longer be locked away. In the likely
event of a major political upheaval in Saudi Arabia �
and the replacement of the royal family with an
Islamic regime that is closely aligned with Islamic
radicals or terror groups � these weapons and bases
could become a central element in the war against the
U.S. and the West. Pakistanis or others might be given
access to these weapons, and with Pakistan spinning
toward radicalism and nuclear-armed chaos, the
prospect of what could follow is not encouraging.
Moreover, the intercontinental ballistic missiles it
purchased from China many years ago could provide the
foundation for a Saudi strategic force. A number of
former diplomats and informants have claimed to
possess detailed evidence of Saudi efforts to develop
or purchase nuclear warheads (perhaps in cooperation
with Iraq).
Given the scale of these dangers, American postwar
planning for Saudi Arabia must also include
neutralizing the possibility of blowback. If or when
the U.S. forces depart, they should be sure to take
all of their baggage with them. The advanced aircraft,
missiles, electronics, and other systems can be flown
or shipped out (with compensation based on the
residual value of these weapons, of course). Whatever
cannot be moved � such as the bases, radar antennas,
and ground facilities � must be destroyed. The
alternative is exposure to destruction and terrorism
on an unimaginable scale.
� Gerald M. Steinberg is director of the Program on
Conflict Management and Negotiation Political Studies
at Bar Ilan University in Ramat Gan, Israel.
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John D. Giorgis - [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Tonight I have a message for the brave and oppressed people of Iraq:
Your enemy is not surrounding your country � your enemy is ruling your
country. And the day he and his regime are removed from power will be
the day of your liberation." -George W. Bush 1/29/03
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