Deadlier Than War
By Walter Russell Mead
Wednesday, March 12, 2003; Page A21
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A13019-2003Mar11.html
Those who still oppose war in Iraq think containment
is an alternative -- a middle way between all-out war
and letting Saddam Hussein out of his box.
They are wrong.
Sanctions are inevitably the cornerstone of
containment, and in Iraq, sanctions kill.
In this case, containment is not an alternative to
war. Containment is war: a slow, grinding war in which
the only certainty is that hundreds of thousands of
civilians will die.
The Gulf War killed somewhere between 21,000 and
35,000 Iraqis, of whom between 1,000 and 5,000 were
civilians.
Based on Iraqi government figures, UNICEF estimates
that containment kills roughly 5,000 Iraqi babies
(children under 5 years of age) every month, or 60,000
per year. Other estimates are lower, but by any
reasonable estimate containment kills about as many
people every year as the Gulf War -- and almost all
the victims of containment are civilian, and
two-thirds are children under 5.
Each year of containment is a new Gulf War.
Saddam Hussein is 65; containing him for another 10
years condemns at least another 360,000 Iraqis to
death. Of these, 240,000 will be children under 5.
Those are the low-end estimates. Believe UNICEF and 10
more years kills 600,000 Iraqi babies and altogether
almost 1 million Iraqis.
Ever since U.N.-mandated sanctions took effect, Iraqi
propaganda has blamed the United States for
deliberately murdering Iraqi babies to further U.S.
foreign policy goals.
Wrong.
The sanctions exist only because Saddam Hussein has
refused for 12 years to honor the terms of a
cease-fire he himself signed. In any case, the United
Nations and the United States allow Iraq to sell
enough oil each month to meet the basic needs of Iraqi
civilians. Hussein diverts these resources. Hussein
murders the babies.
But containment enables the slaughter. Containment
kills.
The slaughter of innocents is the worst cost of
containment, but it is not the only cost of
containment.
Containment allows Saddam Hussein to control the
political climate of the Middle East. If it serves his
interest to provoke a crisis, he can shoot at U.S.
planes. He can mobilize his troops near Kuwait. He can
support terrorists and destabilize his neighbors. The
United States must respond to these provocations.
Worse, containment forces the United States to keep
large conventional forces in Saudi Arabia and the rest
of the region. That costs much more than money.
The existence of al Qaeda, and the attacks of Sept.
11, 2001, are part of the price the United States has
paid to contain Saddam Hussein.
The link is clear and direct. Since 1991 the United
States has had forces in Saudi Arabia. Those forces
are there for one purpose only: to defend the kingdom
(and its neighbors) from Iraqi attack. If Saddam
Hussein had either fallen from power in 1991 or
fulfilled the terms of his cease-fire agreement and
disarmed, U.S. forces would have left Saudi Arabia.
But Iraqi defiance forced the United States to stay,
and one consequence was dire and direct. Osama bin
Laden founded al Qaeda because U.S. forces stayed in
Saudi Arabia.
This is the link between Saddam Hussein's defiance of
international law and the events of Sept. 11; it is
clear and compelling. No Iraqi violations, no Sept.
11.
So that is our cost.
And what have we bought?
We've bought the right of a dictator to suppress his
own people, disturb the peace of the region and make
the world darker and more dangerous for the American
people.
We've bought the continuing presence of U.S. forces in
Saudi Arabia, causing a profound religious offense to
a billion Muslims around the world, and accelerating
the alarming drift of Saudi religious and political
leaders toward ever more extreme forms of
anti-Americanism.
What we can't buy is protection from Hussein's
development of weapons of mass destruction. Too many
companies and too many states will sell him anything
he wants, and Russia and France will continue to
sabotage any inspections and sanctions regime.
Morally, politically, financially, containing Iraq is
one of the costliest failures in the history of
American foreign policy. Containment can be tweaked --
made a little less murderous, a little less dangerous,
a little less futile -- but the basic equations don't
change. Containing Hussein delivers civilians into the
hands of a murderous psychopath, destabilizes the
whole Middle East and foments anti-American terror --
with no end in sight.
This is disaster, not policy.
It is time for a change.
Walter Russell Mead is senior fellow for U.S. foreign
policy at the Council on Foreign Relations and author
most recently of "Special Providence: American Foreign
Policy and How It Changed the World."
� 2003 The Washington Post Company
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John D. Giorgis - [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Tonight I have a message for the brave and oppressed people of Iraq:
Your enemy is not surrounding your country � your enemy is ruling your
country. And the day he and his regime are removed from power will be
the day of your liberation." -George W. Bush 1/29/03
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