Personally, I don't think the chances would have been much less likely, but it seems that Bush downplaying AQ before 9-11 is fairly well established.
I've said it before here; I'm convinced that heightened airport security would have thwarted the attacks. We know that Ashcroft quit flying commercial because of a threat assessment. If it was enough of a threat to keep Ashcroft off the planes, why wasn't it enough to increase security?
We also know that while under Reno, anti-terrorism was a "tier one priority" while under Ashcroft, it didn't make the top seven. It doesn't seem to far fetched to me to assume that a field agent throwing up flags about suspected terrorists taking flying lessons and asking about airport security would have been taken more seriously by an administration that had made anti-terrorism a priority.
And that's just the tip of the iceberg.
-- Doug _______________________________________________ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
