> From: Doug Pensinger [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] > > Dan wrote: > > > Given this, I would argue that public opinion is very volatile. It > > can easily swing against the US. The natural tendency is > against the > > US, and it takes a tremendous amount of work to slow the > slide in that > > direction. The longer we are in control, the more difficult it will > > be....especially if we do not guarantee security for the people. > > I've been wondering about the effacacy of polls in a place > like Iraq. > These are people that are used to give the "correct" answers > to questions > with out regard to how they really feel, don't you think that > there is at > least some segment of the population that responds in this > manner even if > promised anonymity? > > -- > Doug >
I posted this a while back, but it got lost in a black hole. I agree, how much should we trust the polls in Iraq? I am not sure that people who have spent 30 years under the boot of a brutal dictator would make good poll subjects. Did Iraq have an independent free media? Not that I recall. And were the people used to freedom of expression without fear of consequences? Again, I don't think they were (unless have your scallops electrified is not a consequence). So, if some guy comes up to you in the street, perhaps from a media company (or so his shirt proclaims) and as you look over his shoulder, you see a humvee full of US Marines drive by, and he asks you "Do you like America, is life better now", perhaps you might pause for a moment... and say "Yes, we love Americans, we love America, life is much better" and perhaps you may not really mean it. Even worse if they called you, as they would have your phone number and could pop round and drag the kids off for a bit of "rehab" any time they liked. This is largely the fault of Saddams regime, and what it has done to the people of Iraq, not a criticism of America, or the media. That and the fact that they have just been invaded, and no matter how honourable the intentions of the invaders may be, I would think thay may be a little sceptical while the invaders tanks are still in the streets. I use the world invader, feel free to replace it with liberator if you wish. I think, given 30 years of terror and propaganda, the Iraqis could be forgiven for being a little unsure. So, in summary, I don't trust the polls that have been done. I don't think polling an invaded country, especially a former police state, and asking them if they love their invaders and want them to stay is a good way of getting unbiased results. None of this is saying that it is or is better or worse btw, just that I don't trust the polls etc, and think that arguments based on them as proof of the success of the American strategy are flawed. It may be a great success, I hope it is, but polls don't prove it. When Iraqi has a stable democratic government, and a year or two of peace, lets ask them then. And, given those two pretexts, I have no doubt that they will answer yes. And I will believe them. Andrew
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