----- Original Message ----- From: "JDG" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> To: "Killer Bs Discussion" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> Sent: Tuesday, October 12, 2004 6:24 AM Subject: RE: 2004 Presidential Race Analysis
> At 07:10 PM 10/12/2004 +1000 Andrew Paul wrote: > >> From: Erik Reuter [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] > >> The data is really too close to call. People can analyze all > >> they want, it doesn't change the fact that the polls are > >> within the margin of error. > > Using a large number of polls can substantially reduce the number of error. > > That is, while one poll of 50-46 would be "within the margin of error" - > having six such polls would lead you to say with some confidence that > candidate A is slightly ahead, probably by around 50-46. > That is true if and only if the errors can be treated as statistical or pseudo-statistical. If there is a small systematic error that is shared by the polls (by small I mean 1%-2%). Most polls just before the 2000 election showed such a bias. IIRC, Zogby was the one poll that was close to on top of the right number. IIRC, that was true in the previous election, tool. Dan M. _______________________________________________ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
