I am continuing to look closely at the State Polls that come in, as well as
TV ad buys, and candidate visits to get a feel for how this race is
developing. When it comes to State polls, I tend to put a lot of stock in
Gallup generally (as they are the granddaddy of pollsters) and in
Mason-Dixon particularly. Mason-Dixon has a long track record, and in
particular has batted nearly 1.000 in their 2000 and 2002 state polls.
(Mason-Dixon does not do national polls, only state-by-state polls.)
Anyhow, based on the latest Mason-Dixon and Gallup polls, it appears that
Bush has opened up a modest lead in NV, CO, IA, and NM. In addition, we
have anonymous quotes from the Kerry campaign that seem to concede that
they are not doing well in CO (where no poll has ever shown them ahead),
nor in rural IA. Kerry has also cancelled visits to CO. So,
state-by-state, Mason-Dixon has Bush +5 at 49% overall in NM, and Gallup
has Bush at the magical 50% level and +3 in NM. In IA, Mason-Dixon has
Bush at +6 and 49%, while Gallup has Bush at the magical 50% level and +4.
In NV, both Mason-Dixon and Gallup have Bush at 52% and up by +10 and +9 -
moreover, no poll from any source has shown Kerry up in NV since the
Democratic Convention.
So, if we assign all these States as "leaning to Bush" and if we similarly
give Kerry Pennsylvania [and Michigan if you believe that Michigan has
actually come "in play"], which despite substantial candidate
visit-attention this week, both show fairly consistent leads for Kerry in
the polls, that leaves us with six true "toss-up" States, which can hardly
be described with confidence as leaning in any direction. These six
"toss-ups" are Florida, Ohio, Wisconsin, Minnesota, New Hampshire, and Hawaii.
Bush: 239
Kerry: 224
Thus, the following scenarios produce a Kerry win:
1) OH + WI + MN + NH + HI (i.e. if Bush wins FL, Kerry must "run the table"
to win.)
2) If Kerry wins FL, on the other hand, he still needs 19 more EV's.
2a) FL + OH
2b) FL + MN + WI
(Note: NH and HI don't matter if Kerry wins FL in this scenario.)
That's it! Only three possible scenarios for Kerry add up to 270.
So, look carefully at any remaining State Polls from IA or NM or maybe NV
showing Kerry tightening the race, otherwise the electoral math is looking
very simple.
Meanwhile, what is particularly troubling for Kerry is that in my last
analysis both FL and WI seemed to be leaning Bush. While the latest polls
from FL and WI have been more favorable to Kerry, the state polls may yet
swing back towards Bush by election day. .
Moreover, I can't help but sum up this race in the fact that both campaigns
are visiting Minnesota right now, and neither candidate is visiting
Missouri. With the exception of OH and FL, a lot of this year's contest
seems to be being fought in States Gore won in 2000.
In any event, it will be worth looking very carefully at where the
candidates choose to divide their time in these last five days among OH,
FL, WI, MN, and NH.... and then if visits to places like PA, NJ, and MI by
Bush or by Kerry to IA, NM, or NV can fundamentally alter this basic
dynamic. And who knows, maybe we will have an unprecedented candidate
visit to Hawai'i. I would never have believed it, but then again, I would
never have believed that the Red Sox would come back on the Yankees either....
JDG
_______________________________________________________
John D. Giorgis - [EMAIL PROTECTED]
"The liberty we prize is not America's gift to the world,
it is God's gift to humanity." - George W. Bush 1/29/03
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