Doug Pensinger wrote:
>MM wrote:
>
>> Hello everyone,
>> Please remember to set back your clocks one century on Tuesday night.
>>
>
>Oh come on Miron, were going to win, big time. 8^)
>
>And by the way welcome to the list to all new members - Miron, Ruben,
>Chad, Martin from the Culture list (apologies if I left anyone out) and of
>course all the shy ones. I hope you're not too put off by the
>contentiousness of some of the exchanges.
Thanks on the welcome, Doug!
I think indeed it's possible that Kerry will win big time.
Just talked yesterday night on the phone with a friend in New Jersey.
Registered Republican - and she's voting for Kerry.
OTOH, she's always been kind of a centrist.
So, not a big surprise.
I hope Bush made a big election mistake by putting all his fishes into the
"neocon" extremes of his party. That's an unusual thing to do!
Usually candidates start near the middle of their party,
and during the campaing they move to the center to get
as wide an alliance as possible without compromising their ideas.
Bush started too far to the neocon extreme, and then somehow skipped
the move to the center.
He's in serious risk of alienating many centrist Republicans -
Well, indeed he has...
Not only that - he has alienated many conservatives too.
Even those who agree with his proclaimed ideas,
must realize Bush is too incompetent to carry them out.
He mishandled Iraq, mishandled the US budget during wartime.
Also during wartime, he made completely unnecessary
cultural divisions in the American public
- for instance, no one really needed the discussion
about a gay marriage amendment right now.
I think that for this election Bush is left only with this "tribal" votes:
Those many people who will vote Republican out of a deep sense
of belonging in that camp.
As one slightly repellent example, Pat Buchanan in his *weak*
endorsement of Bush had to rely on that tribal feeling at the end,
because most of his reasoning was pointing him otherwise.
Tribal feelings are a very powerful force in politics;
this election will be a measure of that.
Bush is counting on this; that can explain why he
has been fanning the fires of cultural divisions in the USA.
Harming the people of the USA *during war* for a
possible political advantage.
Ruben
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