----- Original Message ----- From: "JDG" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> To: "Killer Bs Discussion" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> Sent: Friday, November 05, 2004 8:03 PM Subject: Re: Where do we go from here?
> > > >It may not be as true now, but it was pretty well established by empirical > >data in the past. One always noted about a 4%-6% increase/decrease in the > >spread (whichever favors the Republicans when the polling switched from > >adult Americans to likely voters. This switch usually happened after the > >conventions. > > Dan - I'm honestly not sure that I follow your comments.... Are you > referring to the usual Republican boost in "likely voter" screens as > opposed to "registered voter" or "adult" polls? That's exactly what I was referring to. > As for Gautam's point, I think that there is a solid empirical basis for > this belief. First of all, we know that turnout among certain > Democratic-leaning demographics, i.e. the poor, minorities, etc. tends to > lag the national average. Furthermore, Republicans have done very well in > some recent off-year, low-turnout elections, particularly 2002 and 1994. It was interesting that this year likely voters and registered voters poll numbers were much closer than anything I remember seeing before. Anyways, your memory matches mine, I was just giving the first example that I thought of. Dan M. _______________________________________________ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
