----- Original Message ----- From: "Gautam Mukunda" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> To: "Killer Bs Discussion" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> Sent: Saturday, November 06, 2004 10:05 AM Subject: Re: It seems over...
> The base rate might be a more important effect over > the long run, but I have no idea which one was > stronger in the 1950s. I don't do voter turnout stuff > - I'm not an Americanist. But the base rate of by > generation voter turnout does vary, which is why I > think the data actually supports the model I was > trying (not very well, apparently) to express perfectly. I realize that you were tired at 1 AM. This explanation fits the data much better. It makes sense that it is what specialists in the field teach. Let me restate the points, to see if I understand what the concept is. There are four factors we can identify: 1) Good times/bad times in the voting year: This is a short term feature, and is most responsible for changes from one election to the next. 2) Good times/bad times while people came to political maturity. Lifelong patterns are established by events that occur during the late teenage and early adult years (My mom's still very influenced by the Great Depression, for example). These establish the baseline for the voting patterns of a generation. 3) Important long term issues for the nation being on the table for decision. Civil Rights, which was ignored in the '20s and '30s was very much on the table from the mid-50s to the mid -70s. This issue is obviously significant, the US fought its only Civil War over this issue. 4) The fact that a significant fraction of the adult population were effectively prohibited from voting in the early 20th century. Jim Crow laws made it virtually impossible to vote in a number of states. Thus, the earlier fractions should really have a different denominator: the number of adults who could vote if they wanted to. This model fits the data much better than your 1AM explanation. Are you getting old Gautam? The ability to think clearly and write on no sleep is a youthful one. :-) Dan M. _______________________________________________ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
