Gautam wrote:
Well, first, I don't agree with that interpretaion of what happened in Vietnam. After the Tet Offensive the "insurgency" per se was basically non-existent in South Vietnam. Almost all major military engagements were with North Vietnamese troops who crossed the border.
I'm all but positive that the Vietcong was _very_ active right up to the end of the conflict and I believe that the political wing even took charge briefly following the U.S. evacuation.
A similar success in Iraq would be far more decisive, since none of the bordering states is deploying their army extensively. Sadly, it doesn't appear that the insurgency in Iraq is nearly as well organized as the one in Vietnam (yes, I meant to write the above. An organized insurgency would be one that the US could identify and smash. A dispersed one, which is, I _think_, what we're facing, is much more difficult to deal with, although militarily less effective). The analogy with Vietnam is an easy one to make, but I don't think it's very convincing.
I'd have to disagree. While there are many differences, some of the similarities are striking. In particular our reluctance to use overwhelming force, the reliance on training an Iraqi army to deal with the insurgency (in the Viet Nam conflict it was known as Vietnamization), the killing of Iraqis that cooperate with us, the attempts to legitimize the government through democratic elections, etc.
Equally (that is, not at all) powerful ones could be drawn to the British experience in Malaysia (a highly successful counterinsurgency) or the American one in the Philippines (also successful, but at far too high a price for both the US and the Philippinos).
Perhaps. I know little about these events, but having lived through Viet Nam I can say that I do see striking similarities.
The answer to your question is I don't know. If we are inflicting the kind of incredibly lopsided casualties that we hear about, then my guess is that yes, we might actually be able to win this, just through sheer bloody-minded attrition. While I'm a little skeptical about the numbers I've seen, there does seem to be considerable evidence to suggest that American forces are, at a tactical level, performing exceptionally well.
Again, this is reminiscent of Viet Nam. We killed the population of North Vietnam a few times over by the time we bailed according to the official body counts and they still kept coming.
There are a few signs of progress in the overarching chaos - Sadr seems to have been at least partially neutralized, and a successful American offensive against Fallujah (one which is happening pretty much as I write this) might, just possibly, deal a very strong blow to the insurgency and give us a little breathing room. Certainly I think that Bush's reelection is likely to cause the insurgents to rethink a great deal. The Vietnamese, for example, seem to have followed American politics quite closely and carefully calibrated their actions in order to strengthen the anti-war movement.
Again, I disagree. The insurgents in Fallujah will melt away and appear in other cities, and when we leave Fallujah to attack them elsewhere, they will return. They will continue to receive military and financial backing from those that oppose our presence in the region. And they will use Bush as an icon of hatred and will use that hatred as a recruiting tool.
There was a news report the other day that showed a baby with one of her legs blown off as the result of an air strike in Fallujah, her badly wounded mother lying beside her. We can do a hundred wonderful things for the Iraqis, but a few images like that will nullify all our hard work and good will. I'm not trying to make a value judgment on air strikes or the use of force. I'm just trying to express to you how difficult I think it is to do what we are trying to do.
Thanks for the honest assessment, I agree with most of the rest of your post. For the sake of our country, Iraq and indeed the whole world I hope we can get the hell out of there in a year or two, but unless we just cut and run, I don't see how.
-- Doug _______________________________________________ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
