Sometime listmember Brad DeLong's take:
http://www.j-bradford-delong.net/movable_type/
Why Am I Not For Bush's Social Security Reform?
It's strange--I ought to be a member of what Joshua Micah Marshall calls the "faint-hearted faction"--those Democrats excited about doing something for Social Security involving private accounts, and eager to strike a deal with Republicans. I do, after all, think it quite likely that the U.S. government is leaving some money on the sidewalk by not investing part of the Social Security Trust Fund in equities. I do believe that Social Security has long-run financing problems, and that the sooner these are fixed, the better. I do see merit in giving Social Security beneficiaries more secure property rights in the prefunded portion of their Social Security benefits, so that it is theirs by more than the Grace of a future Congress. And the important and dangerous problem that private accounts shift risk off the government (where it belongs) and onto individual beneficiaries can be managed--restrict private acccounts to, say, be invested 60% in long-term Treasuries and 40% in the broad stock market, and the amount of risk shifted off is very small.
So why, then, is my attitude toward the Bush administration's Social Security non-proposal like that of the Dread Pirate Roberts?
Experience. We've seen what Bush administration proposals turn into. We've seen it turn a surplus into a deficit. We've seen its idea of a farm bill. We've seen its steel tariff--bad economics, bad mercantilism, and bad politics. We've seen the recent corporate tax monstrosity. We've seen the Medicare drug benefit. We've heard from Paul O'Neill. We've heard from John DiIulio. The Bush administration is batting as close to a zero on economic policy as an administration can--and economic policy is the bright spot in this administration.
So one's assessment of what the Bush Social Security "reform" plan is going to be must be more-or-less like this: it may look cute and friendly now, but it won't stay cute and friendly for long. Somehow--we're not sure how--it's gonna get mean. It's going to get ugly. And it's going to get stupid. The chances that whatever the Bush administration proposes and the Republican Congressional leadership gets behind will be good for the country are indistinguishable from zero.
-- Doug _______________________________________________ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
