* Gary Denton ([EMAIL PROTECTED]) wrote: > On Sat, 15 Jan 2005 19:23:03 -0500, Erik Reuter <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > Rather than making silly partisan insinuations, and rapidly quoting > > sound-bites without studying and thinking about them, it is useful to > > actually look at facts and numbers. > > > > Since 1789, real GDP per capita in the US has grown at an average > > annualized rate of 1.64%, with a standard deviation of 5.02%. For a > > seventy five year period, the standard deviation is reduced by the > > square root of 75, which comes out to be 0.58%. Source data for GDP is > > at: > > > > http://www.eh.net/hmit/gdp/ > > > > The SS Trustees assume for their intermediate productivity growth number > > 1.6%, exactly equal to the longer term growth in GDP per capita for > > the longest time series available. And for their high and low cost > > scenarios, they add and subtract half of the 75 year standard deviation, > > so that is 1.6% +/- 0.29% = 1.3% and 1.9% The SS projection assumptions > > are at: > > > > http://www.ssa.gov/OACT/TR/TR04/II_assump.html#wp94905 > > > > It is hard to imagine anyone familiar with economic statistics calling > > their assumed productivity growth numbers unjustified or unreasonable. > > It is hard to imigine someone going back ovfer 200 years to get their > economic growth projection and then narrowing to half of a standard > deviation.
In other words, you don't have a clue about what you are writing, and are just playing Eliza again, repeating sound bites randomly instead of giving an analytical basis for your argument. If this is the kind of thing that is coming to pass for cogent discussion as a result of the expansion in internet blogging in the last few years, then I despair for the future. It seems that attention spans are rapidly approaching 30 seconds and that people think that sound bites are better than detailed knowledge and careful study. -- Erik Reuter http://www.erikreuter.net/ _______________________________________________ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
