----- Original Message ----- From: "Nick Arnett" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> To: "Killer Bs Discussion" <[email protected]> Sent: Monday, May 16, 2005 11:59 AM Subject: Re: The American Political Landscape Today
> On Mon, 16 May 2005 11:34:35 -0500, Dan Minette wrote > > > Isn't there a simpler explanation? Conservative Democrats are > > people who are traditional Democrats, based on families, etc., but > > are actually conservative. Thus, they identify themselves as > > Democrats but often do vote Republican based on their views of the > > issues. The old "yellow dog Democrats" in Texas, for example, were > > often very conservative. > > How can you reconcile this explanation with the data at hand? > > "The Republican Party's current advantage with the center makes up for the > fact that the GOP-oriented groups, when taken together, account for only 29% > of the public. By contrast, the three Democratic groups constitute 41% of the > public." > > This was from about self-identification. It was about core beliefs. > > Here are the self-identification numbers: One set of self-identification numbers. The other, I gave for the last 30 years in an earlier post. For the last available year (2003) the numbers are: Conservative: 33% Moderate: 40% Liberal: 18%. > "Taken together, the three Democratic groups make up a larger share of > registered voters than do the three Republican groups (44% vs. 33%)." That's true...Conservative Democrats have been self-identified as Democrats. But, the advantage the Democrats have had is slipping. For example, in 1980, 41% were self-identified Democrats vs. 24% Republican. In 2003, the numbers were 33% Dem, 28% Rep. http://www.harrisinteractive.com/harris_poll/index.asp?PID=444 The Pew poll that was conducted seemed to do some rather atypical things to arrive at catagories. It is inconsistant with years of polling data that I've seen. I've reconciled those polling data with the election results that I've seen...without assuming cognative dissonence on the part of the voters. > Poll after poll shows that a vast gap between the popularity of conservative > politicians and the popularity of their politics. I don't see it that way. Let's take one contraversial subject: abortion. The standard liberal Democratic position is to defend all abortions without question. Yet, if you look at http://www.pollingreport.com/abortion.htm you will see, in the 1st poll, that unlimited abortions are favored by less than a quarter of the population. Those who consider themselves pro-choice and pro-life are close to equal. There is one other poll that has the majority of the people saying the Democrats are closer to their position, and there is one other poll that has less than 20% identify with the liberal position. >What will it take to debunk the myth that conservative politics and policies are popular? It isn't a myth because you don't want to believe it. I try to read numbers straight. I consider myself liberal and I've felt, as such, that I've been in the minority since I left Madison Wisconsin....even when I lived in Conn. >What will it take for people to care more about their politics? A lot of people do care in Texas....many of them disagree with me, and, probably, even moredisagree with you. Dan M. _______________________________________________ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
