----- Original Message ----- From: "Robert G. Seeberger" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> To: <[email protected]> Sent: Sunday, May 29, 2005 7:09 PM Subject: The French Say "Non!"
> I'm sure most of you ran across the news that the French rejected the > Euro constitution. > I'm switching the order of the questions around because the answers to the first question are highly dependant on the answers to the second. > Do you think this will torpedo the EU? Torpedo strongly overstates it. The EU is not going to fall apart tomorrow, next month, or next year because the French said no to the new constitution. It is unlikely that there will be significant pullback (such as the elimination of the Euro or the withdrawl of a number of countries from the EU. But, at a minimum it will slow the expansion and strengthing of the EU. Even more likely, IMHO, is that this will represent a turning point in this process. I'm guessing, to first order, that the EU is about as strong as it will ever get now. By the time that a new agreement might be ratified by all countries, the demographics of the shrinking Europe will probably take over. The relative power of the EU vs. the US will continue to diminish over the next 20 years to the point where the response of Europe to any US actions will be significantly less important than the response of China, and may be less important than the response of India or Latin America. The complementary part of this is the lessining of the already slim chance Turkey has to join the EU. Up till now, the EU has expanded by incorporating countries that decrease it's average fertility rate. If it included Turkey, it would be incorporating a large, Moselim population into Europe, which still has a fertility rate of 2.7 (compared to the EU average of about 1.4). It would be hard to incorporate that many workers into the French, Italian, German cultures, if they emmigrated, but there would be some ability to at least soften the effects of the aging/shrinking of the EU. But, reports from those that voted "No" in France indicated that uneasyness with incorporating Turkey was part of the decision making process in the "No" vote. I think that the EU politicians are smart enough to pick this up. So, I predict that, within 10 years, we will see the start of the marginilization of Europe on the world stage. > How do you think this will effect the US? Clearly the direct effects will be on Europe, with only secondary effects for the US. From a geopolitical point of view, the US will need to focus more on Asia and less on Europe. Pacific relationships will be the key to international relations for the US. China will stand out as the other significant player in the world. Within 10 years, it's actions/opinions should clearly be much more important than those of Europe. It will have it's own demographics problem, but at a significantly later date than Europe (I'm guessing that it will be in the '40s or so). If the US doesn't get its act together with regard to deficits (national and trade) and the effects of aging on it's populaton (Medicare and SS), then it may not have as much relative advantage as it needs to keep China from having enough ecconomic and conventional military power to be considered the second superpower. Even throwing in nuclear weapons, we still have Europe going to the sidelines....but that would be an interesting thread on it's own. Dan M. _______________________________________________ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
