Robert J. Chassell wrote:
> Have new technological innovations required human generations to pass
> before powerful inventions became commonplace?  Put another way, do
> people have to become really used to an innovation before it can be
> made powerful?
> 
> My thesis here is that since the beginning we have seen four stages
> (at least, in physics dependant technology):
> 
> Technlogies involving
> 
>   1. whole atoms and molecules,
>      which you could see
> 
>   2. electricty,
>      which you could feel
> 
>   3. nuclei and nuclei-related radiations,
>      which you could neither see nor feel, but which you could detect
> 
>   4. quantum mechanics,
>      which you could not understand, but which you could calculate
> 
> In the 18th century in the first stage, technological innovation
> involved actions with whole atoms and molecules, for example,
> 
>   * canals in which the bed and banks of stone and dirt channeled the
>     fluid water;
> 
>   * textile machines in which spools and spindles held fibers and
>     thread; and,
> 
>   * steam engines in which metal cylinders held steam.
> 
> These early technological innovations consisted of visible matter
> re-arranged.  (Well, steam could not be seen; but it condensed into
> water that could.)  Nowadays, we speak of atoms and molecules.
> 
> Powerful steam engines, huge textile factories, and big canals came
> generations after the first steam engines, textile machines, and
> canals.
> 
> Incidentally, an internal combustion engine uses visible matter so in
> that sense it is a first stage device.  But the gasoline vapor in it
> is exploded by a second stage technology, an electric spark (excepting
> in Diesel engines).  Moreover, in normal operation, parts in an engine
> move too fast to see.  The internal combustion engine did not come
> into widespread use until after the second stage had been around for
> several generations.
> 
> The second stage involved a fluid moving through certain kinds of
> solid -- an electric `fluid' moving through `conductors'.  This must
> have been very strange for humans accustomed to rivers, canals, and
> pipes in which the contents was visibly different from the container
> and in which nothing could move through a solid.
> 
> While a weak electric `fluid' could be tasted and a strong one gave a
> shock, there was no obviously visible reason why salty water conducted
> and sweet water did not.  Reflecting metal could be seen as different
> from non-reflecting rubber, a visible difference, but both were
> solids.  How could anything move through a solid?
> 
> An early and famous use of this second stage technology involved
> relatively weak electric `currents' in signalling: the electric
> telegraph.  The electric motor was invented within the same generation
> as the electric telegraph became practical but the electric motor
> itself did not become powerful or widely used for a very long time.
> 
> (Incidentally, nowadays, we speak of electrons, a crowd moving along,
> but we also speak of electric `currents' and the `flow' of
> electricity.)
> 
> The third stage involved something that could not be felt or tasted
> and which could move through anything.  Fortunately, X-rays could be
> detected from the beginning with photographic plates and with certain
> salts such as zinc sulfide.  The latter was good for medical X-rays
> machines and for painted, radium containing, wrist watch numbers.
> 
> Nowadays, we say that all this involves nuclei and radiations
> involving nuclei.
> 
> Although nuclear radiations were used weakly in glowing paint, nuclei
> themselves were not used for power for two generations:  they were
> first used in the nuclear bombs that exploded over Hiroshima and
> Nagasaki and then in nuclear reactors as hot water boilers for
> electric power plants.
> 
> Interestingly, the bombs involved a first stage technology, bringing
> visible stuff together, but in a high tech way:  quickly moving the
> two uranium hemispheres together in the previously untested Hiroshima
> gun-type bomb, and even more quickly, compressing the plutonium in the
> Nagasaki implosion bomb.
> 
> The `slow' power part of this third stage involved a nuclear reactor
> as a `hot water boiler'.  This, incidentally, is just what coal does:
> it produces heat that converts water to steam in a boiler.
> 
> Incidentally, nowadays, no one uses the nuclei of thorium, although
> India, which has large deposits of thorium, is beginning a test using
> uranium and plutonium to provide the neutrons.  (Although not fissile
> itself, a nucleus of thorium-232 will absorb a neutron to produce
> uranium-233, which is fissile.)  On its own, thorium cannot sustain a
> nuclear reaction.  However, thorium can be used in combination with a
> neutron source such as a uranium and plutonium nuclear reactor.
> 
> Even better, Carlo Rubbia, a physicist, suggested building a thorium
> reactor with an electrically operated neutron source such as that
> provided by a linear accelerator or a not-very-good, but currently
> buildable, hydrogen-fusion device.
> 
> Just like normal uranium and plutonium, thorium produces radioactive
> products that are dangerous.  However, thorium is a lower numbered
> element than regular uranium or plutonium.  In general, its fission
> products come after the transmutation thorium-232 to uranium-233 and
> the latters' fissioning.  These products do not have half-lives as
> long as those from higher weighted uranium or plutonium.
> 
> Nonetheless, these fission products do last dangerously for thousands
> of years.  But they do last for tens of thousand of years.  Moreover,
> a thorium device can also be used to reduce the danger of other
> high-level nuclear waste by converting long-lived radio-actinides into
> shorter lived radioactive elements.
> 
> The fourth stage involves something that not only cannot be seen, like
> water, or felt, like an electric current, or detected, like X-rays or
> gamma rays, and which cannot readily be understood but which can be
> calculated:  quantum mechanics.
> 
> With quantum mechanics, we speak of waves that are also particles, of
> the magnetic spin of an electron whose dimensions cannot be measured,
> of the probability of a particle jumping over or tunneling through a
> barrier that on average prevents such a leak.
> 
> At the moment, quantum mechanics demonstrates itself in the tunnel
> diodes used in communications and computers.  But technologies
> involving quantum mechanics are not used for large scale power
> generation, whether quickly in an explosion, or slowly in a power
> plant.
> 
> 
> As for low-density energy sources:
> 
> Currently, wind is the most successfully harnessed of the low-density
> energy sources.  Wind powered electric generators now produce
> electricity ata cost not so different from oil-fired electric
> generators.
> 
> These successful wind generators mainly use first and second stage
> technologies.  However, they use computers for control.
> 
> Are control computers an example of a fourth stage innovation being
> necessary for the proper functioning of an earlier stage device?  If
> so, is this because otherwise to work economically, the device
> requires a high-density source of energy -- a steady and strong wind?
> 
> Solar voltaic cells, which use third or fourth stage technologies, are
> still costly.
> 
> 
> A query:
> 
> Thermal electric generators use a third stage technology, a vacuum in
> which electrons boil off a hot source and travel to a cool collector.
> Yet they are hardly commonplace.
> 
> Is it more expensive to pump the necessary vaccuum for a one gigawatt
> device, the electical output of a contemporary power station, than to
> build a steam turbine and electric generator?  If pumping the vacuum,
> and keeping it, are expensive, then we see the costs of a first stage
> technology.  However, does the high vacuum needed by a thermal
> electric generator require a second or third stage technology of some
> sort?  Is this the case?
> 
> Or is a thermal electric generator in effect a `low-density energy
> source' that requires too much `boil off' surface area for economic
> use?
> 

Hmm, I can't answer your question, but reading this did make me think
and led to an enjoyable exploration of thermo-electric engines and their
dark side, peltier coolers, of which I have one, sadly broken.

Thanks,

Andrew


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