--- [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

>  
> In a message dated 9/18/2006 9:58:12 A.M. Eastern
> Standard Time,  
> [EMAIL PROTECTED] writes:
> 
> He  has,
> rather remarkably, gone from being a truly atrocious
> shortstop to  one who is basically average (he was
> significantly better than average last  year, I
> think).
> 

> OK - maybe you will grant that he has gone from a
> very good shortstop with  
> somewhat limited range but a great arm to an
> excellent shortstop who can always 
>  make a key play. You really have to watch him every
> day to appreciate how 
> good  he is

Sorry, I phrased that poorly.  He was _always_ an
extraordinary, Hall-of-Fame caliber shortstop, because
his hitting more than made up for his atrocious
fielding.  His hitting was never quite as good as
people gave it credit for (he was never, ever, in the
same league as ARod) but he was always very good.  Now
he's moved from an excellent shortstop who hits his
way into the HOF despite an awful glove to an
excellent shortstop who hits his way into the HOF
despite a mediocre glove.

As for the "you have to see him play every
day"...let's talk about hitting for a second.  Assume
600 plate appearances in a season.  A .250 hitter is a
poor one, a .300 hitter is a good one.  The difference
between a .250 hitter and a .300 hitter over 600 plate
appearances is the difference between 180 and 150 hits
- 30 hits.  That's less than one hit every five days. 
Even if you were in the press box for every game, the
human mind is simply incapable of assessing the
difference between the two non-numerically.  No one
can tell the difference between 1 hit a game and 1.1
hits a game.

OK, then think about how much harder judging defense
is.  Most importantly, being there helps someone in
judging hitting, because you always watch the batter
and events are unambiguous.  The batter gets a hit or
he doesn't.  In judging defense, though, an observer
_isn't_ watching the SS at the key moment (when he
takes his first step).  Furthermore, the brain has a
bias against judging "events that don't happen".  You
don't remember the balls that go pass a SS in bad
position - but you do remember the plays that look
amazing because the SS was badly positioned when a
better positioned SS would have made them routine -
and you remember them to that SS's _credit_, instead
of as mistakes on his part.  So I really don't think
that watching Jeter play every day will help you judge
his defense - in fact, I think it will probably
_hurt_, because you'll see the spectactular plays that
he makes, but not the routine ones that he misses. 
Does he have a fantastic arm?  Sure?  How does that
balance against all the hits that get by him because
he didn't move quickly enough to get them?  No one can
judge that subjectively - the only way to do it is
analytically, and we can tell that, analytically, the
strength of his arm just wasn't very important.

Best,
Gautam

Gautam Mukunda
[EMAIL PROTECTED]
"Freedom is not free"
http://www.mukunda.blogspot.com

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