> -----Original Message-----
> From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On
> Behalf Of pencimen
> Sent: Thursday, September 28, 2006 11:57 PM
> To: Killer Bs Discussion
> Subject: Re: 9/11 conspiracies (WAS RE: What should we believe when there
> is no reliab...
>
> "Dan wrote:
>
> > Their per capita GDP is also 75% of the US. Since we are talking
> > about economic costs, let's look at energy usage per unit of GDP
>
> Can you expand on the connection between energy use and GDP?
First, they are seen to be very strongly correlated. First, let me give the
US numbers:
Energy GDP
1949 31982 1635
1950 34616 1777
1951 36974 1915
1952 36748 1988
1953 37664 2080
1954 36639 2065
1955 40208 2213
1956 41754 2256
1957 41787 2301
1958 41645 2279
1959 43466 2441
1960 45087 2502
1961 45739 2560
1962 47828 2715
1963 49646 2834
1964 51817 2999
1965 54017 3191
1966 57017 3399
1967 58908 3485
1968 62419 3653
1969 65621 3765
1970 67844 3772
1971 69289 3899
1972 72704 4105
1973 75708 4342
1974 73991 4320
1975 71999 4311
1976 76012 4541
1977 78000 4751
1978 79986 5015
1979 80903 5173
1980 78280 5162
1981 76343 5292
1982 73286 5189
1983 73146 5424
1984 76793 5814
1985 76580 6054
1986 76826 6264
1987 79223 6475
1988 82869 6743
1989 84999 6981
1990 84730 7113
1991 84667 7101
1992 86015 7337
1993 87652 7533
1994 89292 7836
1995 91200 8032
1996 94226 8329
1997 94800 8704
1998 95200 9067
1999 96837 9470
2000 98976 9817
2001 96498 9891
2002 97967 10049
2003 98273 10301
2004 100414 10704
2005P 99894 11049
The GDP growth rate averaged 3.5% per year, while the energy usage growth
averaged 2% per year. Normalizing by averages, one can see a good
correlation between year to year GDP growth and energy use growth. The RMS
variation for the actual data is less than 60% of the RMS variation between
randomly selected years. Also, by eyeballing it, you can correlate
recessions with either decreases or small increases in energy use.
Here are a few more countries. First I will give the average growth rates
from '80 to '05. Then, year by year will be given at the end of the post.
Energy GDP
Growth Growth
United States 1.0% 3.1%
Australia 3.3% 2.8%
China 9.5% 5.3%
Japan 2.4% 1.7%
S. Korea 6.9% 7.4%
Interestingly enough, the US has the best GDP growth/Energy growth of all
countries.
Second, since the upper limit of real GDP growth is dependant on
productivity, the tie between energy usage and GDP becomes evident.
Historically, we've improved productivity per worker by having machines
extend a worker's capacity. Originally, we could think of it as a steel
mill vs. a blacksmith. Now, it more involves things like computers
maintaining inventory instead of people.
Third, wealthier people have more options. Air conditioning is the
foundation of cities such as Miami, Houston, & Phoenix growing as they did.
It would be hard to live in this area without air conditioning. Indeed, one
of the problems with the poor elderly is that they are liable to die in the
heat if they don't use AC.
That's a start at least.
Dan M.
Australia
1980 230,091 2.76
1981 238,288 2.778
1982 232,001 2.895
1983 244,378 2.857
1984 256,110 3.043
1985 267,104 3.158
1986 273,379 3.181
1987 288,038 3.312
1988 299,685 3.476
1989 310,891 3.624
1990 310,528 3.718
1991 311,313 3.709
1992 322,676 3.817
1993 335,249 3.916
1994 349,363 3.918
1995 364,272 4.05
1996 378,078 4.223
1997 394,940 4.56
1998 415,912 4.595
1999 431,550 4.82
2000 440,426 4.833
2001 457,513 4.993
2002 472,195 5.097
2003 490,012 5.093
2004 496,678 5.266
China
1980 160,920 17.503
1981 170,166 17.192
1982 186,456 17.934
1983 206,695 19.01
1984 238,169 20.453
1985 268,157 22.006
1986 291,083 23.226
1987 323,620 24.747
1988 358,151 26.433
1989 372,900 26.943
1990 382,996 26.985
1991 423,410 28.21
1992 483,815 29.251
1993 549,328 31.301
1994 619,795 34.023
1995 685,057 35.154
1996 750,678 35.924
1997 817,023 37.562
1998 880,754 37.003
1999 942,878 36.91
2000 1,018,308 38.798
2001 1,094,681 40.835
2002 1,185,539 42.381
2003 1,295,795 49.727
2004 1,418,895 59.573
Japan
1980 2,065,085 15.224
1981 2,125,664 15.127
1982 2,184,424 14.608
1983 2,219,633 14.342
1984 2,288,862 15.651
1985 2,405,191 15.716
1986 2,476,353 15.734
1987 2,570,331 16.201
1988 2,744,208 17.186
1989 2,889,402 17.75
1990 3,039,693 18.356
1991 3,141,544 18.965
1992 3,172,079 19.202
1993 3,179,933 19.303
1994 3,214,869 20.205
1995 3,279,466 20.711
1996 3,392,112 21.261
1997 3,452,198 21.936
1998 3,416,056 21.522
1999 3,411,426 22.016
2000 3,492,799 22.448
2001 3,499,895 22.177
2002 3,489,295 21.99
2003 3,534,844 22.204
2004 3,630,132 22.624
South Korea
1980 117,063 1.676
1981 124,632 1.707
1982 133,667 1.767
1983 147,966 1.969
1984 160,171 2.098
1985 166,482 2.234
1986 184,161 2.44
1987 204,610 2.749
1988 226,383 3.117
1989 241,652 3.398
1990 263,776 3.81
1991 288,552 4.353
1992 305,507 4.893
1993 324,246 5.475
1994 351,925 5.921
1995 384,193 6.516
1996 411,081 6.867
1997 430,201 7.47
1998 400,713 6.901
1999 438,726 7.549
2000 475,957 7.922
2001 494,217 8.018
2002 528,666 8.423
2003 545,039 8.691
2004 570,347 8.985
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