At 09:07 PM Friday 9/29/2006, Dan Minette wrote:
>
> My question is whether a cut of 60% or 94% or whatever figure you
> found and cited as necessary to stop or reverse the environmental
> damage, or a cut even a fraction as large, a cut large enough to see
> _any_ gains wrt global warming, no matter how minuscule, will lead to
> a "pause" for a few quarters or something which will make 1929 look
> like a minor blip, and itself perhaps lead to the deaths of millions
> worldwide due to starvation or disease (IOW, consequences just about
> as bad as the worst-case scenarios predict if we do not take such
> drastic action)?
I think there are things we can do to slow the increase in the production of
CO2, such as greatly expanding the use of nuclear power, or significantly
increasing the gas tax. That will help push back global warming, which
might be a very good thing....if we can develop radically new energy
technologies in the next 50 or so years.
I think we'll get plenty of feedback on the effects these taxes have on the
local, as well as world economy, and we know a lot more about what causes
depressions than we did 80 years ago, so I think we can take those steps
without a great deal of risk. ***But, to answer your question, any serious
attempt to stop global warming with the present technology will create a
bigger nightmare than global warming will.*** Apart from the massive world
depression, the fact that cheating countries gain a big advantage over
compliant countries is a very unstable situation that could lead to war.
Combine this with mass starvations, riots, etc. and it would be a nightmare.
> Just as we have "only one global environment" that we can't afford to
> screw up, we have "only one global economy," and screwing it up could
> lead to just as negative consequences for the human race as screwing
> up the environment past the "point of no return." And we have to get
> both of them right the first time, based on knowledge which will
> always be inadequate, because we can't know the long-term
> consequences of our actions until they occur . . .
I think I can predict what will happen. We'll take the obvious steps, and
Europe will soon be able to claim that they have capped their fossil fuel
usage (a population that will peak and then decline will certainly help
this). The US will slowly increase its usage. In 20 years, China's fossil
fuel usage will still be rising fast, and will be greater than that of the
US. India's usage will begin to approach the US's. ***There will be a lot of
speachafying and finger pointing, but not much in the way of real action.***
Dan M.
We agree. On almost everything you said, and particularly on the
parts I marked.
-- Ronn! :)
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