On Wed, Mar 26, 2008 at 4:50 AM, Curtis Burisch <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
> Thought you chaps might be amused to see an article that appeared in > November 1968 in Modern Mechanix. The predictions are partially right, but > sadly we missed out on our 250 MPH cars and domed cities. Seems to me that the biggest error, often committed by technology forecasters, is the assumption that wealth will be shared more equally than it really ever is. Sure, a typical wedding gift is an entire kitchen module. Right. I don't know if this is just utopianism or just bad predicting... the author certainly underestimated the spread of computers, but overestimated the variety of things we'd use them for and how centralized they would be. A "national" traffic computer. Right. And zero accidents? I doubt it. Maybe there would be only a few, but they'd be BIG. I was just reading in This Old House about modular houses, which certainly aren't typical, but they go from foundation to completion in three to five days. That's for a 3,000-square-foot Colonial that arrives on eight tractor-trailers... custom designed. The fact that all the pieces are assembled in a factory apparently adds quality because it becomes practical to use forms that maintain precisely square and flat dimensions. As anybody who has remodeled an old house knows, square and flat is rare. I should add that in reality, the need to build the foundation and let it cure means that the time from breaking ground to completion is more like three months, v. typical construction time of seven months for site-built houses. And sometimes 2/3rds of the cost, aside from the savings on interest and other costs that come from the extra four months of construction time. So, we're not quite where the article predicted, but getting there when it comes to home construction. Nick -- Nick Arnett [EMAIL PROTECTED] Messages: 408-904-7198 _______________________________________________ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
