I believe that a major die off is inevitable. (including humanity,
which could be a good thing for the planet). the causes will include
famine, disease, war and natural disasters, etc. unfortunately, the
ethnic cleansing will occur mostly in undeveloped countries.
the worst case scenario would be a breakdown in the food chain, perhaps
starting in the oceans, that may threaten all life on earth.
personally, i care more about the extinction of plant and animal
species than humanity. billions of years ago life on earth switched
from primeval anaerobic respiration (without oxygen) to aerobic (oxygen
respiration). could it happen again, or perhaps to a methane
atmosphere, or something even stranger?
a best case scenario is the singularity will save us, or civilization
will survive in pockets, depending on location, and condition where the
infrastructure is more developed. at the very least the survivors will
have to adapt to a reduced lifestyle. if the infrastructure suffers a
sudden crash, which may happen in some cities there will be panic,
chaos and death. i doubt it will be that sudden unless there is a
disaster on the order of a 10.0 earthquake, thermonuclear war, or
asteroid impact.
when transportation systems start to break down i expect it will be a
gradual process (in the developed countries) and there will be a
transition from air and truck cargo, to rail and ship distribution.
automobiles will have much higher emission and mileage standards and
will be heavily taxed based on mpg. gasoline will also be heavily
taxed and the revenues will be invested in cheap, eco-friendly, rapid
mass transit.
technology has made conspicuous consumption possible and the collapse
of that market will make the dot.com crash look like a minor
adjustment. i look forward to a drastic reduction in materialism and
greed. what we do with technology is what matters and i believe the
profit motive will be replaced by more research in clean technology,
which just may save western civilization and force people to reuse,
recycle and reduce consumption.
a crisis in the water supply will force people to stop watering their
lawns, etc. there will still be enough water to drink (except in
countries where there is already a critical water shortage).
priorities will be given to necessities, and luxury items will no
longer be produced on the scale industrialized nations are accustomed
to. that will be a good thing because it will put the brakes on
conspicuous consumption and planned obsolescence.
mega-capitalists, like bill gates, will become public scapegoats, along
with the automobile and oil companies, etc. the plutocrats will be
coerced and regulated into producing green products. remaining
resources will be rationed. we can see it happening already with
inflation forcing people to reduce their spending on non essential
items.
this election in america should mark a major change in voter awareness
that war has been the wrong course. there is hope we can undo the
damage from bush/cheney and change direction. hopefully, an all out
emphasis on solar, wind, tidal, geothermal and other renewable energy
alternatives. if obama is nominated, all bets are off. i believe
there may well be a racial backlash and mc cain could win. that will
mean a continuation of many of the bush policies, even though the last
eight years have been the most disastrous in history.
if the western world goes into a super depression, the chinese will
lose their biggest markets, but by then they will be already suffering
from the pollution and other consequences of rapid industrialization.
their government already does very little to curb the steadily
increasing cancer rates, etc. they may or may not start sequestering
carbon emission from their coal plants, once that technology is
developed. police states will emerge all over the world.
jon
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