~~~crop yields will continue to increase, but there is still a danger
of exhausting the soil and the water table, and other natural
resources, eventually. perhaps technology will come to our rescue in
time, perhaps not...
~~~and the water table
Jon, the top soil is _getting better_ in the breadbasket of the largest
grain producing country in the world.
Dan M
~~~dan, the top soil is not getting better, just more productive, due
to additives and other enhancements. there are many ways to increase
crop production. rotating crops, planting year round, adding
fertilizer and other nutrients, etc. however, would you agree that
there are limits to how long we can continue to destroy habitats and
other species of plant and animal species to put more land under
cultivation?
~~~even though scarcity does increase the incentive for getting at
resources that are now becoming profitable to extract, how long before
these non renewable resources are exhausted? do you agree that there
is a cost to the methods we use to increase productivity?
~~~the first green revolution ended famine in africa, india and other
places facing mass starvation. more food means more people, so that
even more people will die, until increases in population exhaust the
food supply, again. in addition, more and more people in the world are
beginning to achieve a high living standard. at some point population
will finally start to level off, but by then, will consumption hit
critical mass?
we also have disastrous water shortages in undeveloped countries. even
in the united states there are conflicts over who gets access to fresh
water aquifers. people in georgia are facing shortages while people in
the desert of los angeles continue to water their lawns. deep in the
heart of texas there is a sink hole the size of two football fields...
jon~~~
Would you please prove how one calculate what that critical mass is,
and then show it is less than the projected UN population maximum.
Dan M
~~~dan, I have no idea what critical mass would be, or if scientific
estimates are accurate. i just have a gut feeling that there is a
limit to what the planet can bear... i don't think the world
catastrophe will occur within the next 25, or even 40 years, so my
generation is safe. in that case, you might ask, why should i care? i
expect that the end will come from a variety of causes that will
include the four horsemen, and other factors as yet unknown...
jon~~~
There will be localized problems with that. But, with rainfall
increasing and most grain not dependant on irrigation, with global
warming opening up vast new areas for agriculture, and a significant
oversupply of farm output (that's why the US and Europe have to play
games to keep farmer's incomes from falling through the floor) I am
mystified to see where the mass starvation is coming from.
~~~are you saying that global warming is a good thing? what about the
areas that lose rainfall and become deserts, while other countries get
more rainfall thanks to climate change? are you suggesting that it's
okay because it will balance out in the end?
~~~and other natural resources?
jon~~~
Compared with 30 years ago, basic commodity prices are way down because
there is a relative overabundance. All the doomsayers of the 70s
predicted prices for copper, iron ore, etc. would go through the roof.
Oil is high, but coal is not. Oil will come down if there is a slight
pause in the rise in demand. 10 years ago, oil was at an 80 year
historical low, due to supply/demand imbalance.
Now, having said that, global warming means things will change, and
change means there will be some big losers. So, localized problems,
oceans rising 1 meter in 100 years, etc. should be expected. Millions
will die, probably. But, natural disasters and wars aside, Stalin,
Hitler, and Mao are responsible for about 75 million non-war deaths
(mostly in their own countries).....so the 20th century set a standard
we should be able to miss in the 21st century.
Dan M.
You sound like you almost regret this :-) Maybe it's time to go to the
stars, multiply human population a thousand fold, so that humanity can
create a new age of genociders - those who would smash entire planets?
Alberto Monteiro
And there is always the Fermi paradox to keep in mind. Back in the
1960s some of us wondered if the reason there were no other advanced
civilizations out there is that they blew themselves up with nuclear
weapons, or something like that. Now there is an alternative
possibility, they could not escape the Malthusian trap and destroyed
themselves and their environment.
Kevin B. O'Brien
Occam's razor solution to the Fermi paradox is that life is such a rare
phenomenon that it probably happens once in each 10^100 universes - the
anthropic principle.
Alberto Monteiro
~~~dan, I think the deaths in the 21st century will be in the billions,
but not so much because of tyranny, as in the 20th, but callous
leadership in countries like korea, china, china and myranar, and greed
in africa, mideast and latin american nations.
the worldwide demand for bio fuels is pushing up the price of food, AND
increasing emissions, as more and more rain forest is cleared in
indonesia to grow palm oil. lowering the price of fuel may reduce
dependence on mideast oil, but as a result, emergency grain supplies
are running dangerously low.
brazilian sugar may be more efficient than american grown corn, but it
also discourages conservation. we should feed people, NOT cars! over
a billion people do not have enough food to eat. there are food riots
from mexico to morocco. filling a SUV s tank could feed a starving
haitian for a year. as more and more third world countries ascend to
second and first world statification, others drop down to fourth and
fifth world economies.
i personally hope that humans will learn from the mistakes of the past,
and will come out of the die off more aware of the importance of
sustainable solutions. hopefully, we will eventually escape the
malthusian trap with the help, rather than hindrance, of technology.
jon~~~
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