Hi, Dan, everyone. The article suggested by Kevin (http://www.drmillslmu.com/peakoil.htm) suggests that world oil production has already peaked and the amount produced annually will continually drop, and the price of oil will continually rise.
I don't know that this necessarily means a doom & gloom future is a certainty, but I would have thought that even if the data and dates were wildly inaccurate, the general scenario (reduced availablity of fossil fuels) is a logical certainty. I am interested why you think that "the peak oil arguement is arm-waving nonsense." What I really wonder though, is why all the "arm waving" about global warming? It seems to reason that if fossil fuel consumption is destined to drop as a result of scarcity, Kyoto is a waste of time and fossil fuels. Why try to legislate a reduced reliance on fossil fuels when it is a physical certainty anyway. I imagine some will say yes but global warming is bad for the planet, and peak oil is only bad for humans. I beg to differ, if I was an wild animal, I'd be hoping for a human golden age. Climate change could we be a luxury compared to a billion hungry human hunter gatherers. Regards, Wayne Eddy >----- Original Message ----- >From: <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> >To: <[email protected]> >Sent: Thursday, May 15, 2008 1:06 PM >Subject: Re: Brin-l Digest, Vol 381, Issue 3 >As for peak oil production, with all due respect, a close (we spent 5 >Christmases in a row together) friend had primary responsibility for his >company's participation in _the_ major new US oil play. I personally know >the factors involved. The peak oil arguement is arm-waving nonsense that >has nothing to do with the actual ecconomics of the oil patch. For example, >the arguement doesn't explain why oil fell to (inflation adjusted) prices >not seen since the Great Depression in 1998. I have a model (which is >based on plain Jane vanilla ecconomics) that does explain it. Isn't a >model that fits data superior to a model that has been repeatedly falisfied >when used in the past? >Dan M. _______________________________________________ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
