On 11/15/2008 7:50:42 PM, John Williams ([EMAIL PROTECTED]) wrote: > On Sat, Nov 15, 2008 at 4:54 PM, Rceeberger <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> > wrote: > > > Then, one must also consider that I have no expertise in this > subject, just > > some observations based on what I know from the news and the experiences > of > > people I know. I try not to start such a conversation, laden with > ignorance > > or potential ignorance on my part. I tend towards pragmatism in that > > respect.<G> > > So, the reason you didn't post your prediction is because you didn't > consider it reliable enough to share. Which was my number 1 guess, by > the way.
Off the mark. You said: "1) You were not certain enough of your prediction to risk that other people might act on it" I don't really care that anyone would act on *my* understanding of a situation. Not my problem. It is that subjects where the volume of knowledge is large and my own understanding is limited are not subjects where I pretend to have an opinion that can be taken as fact, and would prefer to listen and learn rather than speak out. It has nothing to do with making predictions.....that is for blowhards and other idiots who think Christmas tree lights have "smart DC transformers" built in. Dig? >That is part of the point I was making. There are those like > you, then there are others who share their predictions even though > they are no good (either they know that and do it anyway, or they > think their predictions are better than they are). The number of > people who consistently make good predictions is very small, and they > rarely share their predictions. In any predictive setting there will be uncertainty based on the quality of data and the lack of necessary data. No one can judge the need for data if they do not have it and don't know that they need it, or even know it exists. It is what you don't know that hurts you. > > > By the same token, if business were good at predicting things (without > > constantly lying about it), they should be spreading the word in order > to > > self-regulate. > > And they do. Businesses set prices and make deals in markets. > So.....you are saying that the market *intentionally* caused this burst bubble? That they intentionally lost a trillion in stock value? If so, your polemic places you squarely in the "drown it in the bathtub" set. xponent In Reference To Maru rob _______________________________________________ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
