> > Hi Dan, I am interested to hear what your basis is for saying that > Russia is falling out of the developed world.
It's based on a number of things, but I think the single item that stood out for me was the male life expectancy: 59.2 years. 25 years ago, it was over 70 years (at least officially). This drop is absolutely amazing. Women fare much better, average life expectancy is 73.1 years or so, but this high death rate among men indicates a tremendous, debilitating underlying problem. Alcoholism gets most of the blame here, but that level of alcoholism is truly staggering. Second, Russia's economy had been in a free-fall from about 1980 to 2000. Living standards had dropped tremendously. Recently, due to oil and gas production, the per GDP has risen noticeably, but the increasing control of Putin over everything reminds me of Venezuela and Iran. It's as Thomas Friedman stated, central controlled one trick pony economies do not develop well (e.g. Iran, Iraq, Nigeria), while diversified ones (e.g. Taiwan, South Korea) do. With the drop in oil prices, Russia's hurting now. While the US, European, and Asian stock markets have dropped tremendously, it's nothing compared to the 75% drop in Russia seen this year. Third, Russia isn't/can't take care of the relatively few children it does have. According to the Wikipedia article on street children, Russia has 2-4 million (the Russian official number is 700k, but they also state that they do not have an AIDs problem...and 700k isn't peanuts). For a country of 140 million, with about 20 million children, this translates into 10-20% of all children. Fourth, Russia built its status on military might and international control/influence. The countries behind the Iron Curtain were set up to trade in a way highly favorable to Russia, for example. It was the enemy of the US, and was able to contest the US from Viet Nam to Cuba. Now, its military might is minimal. Its soldiers are experienced, which is worth something, but its equipment is decaying. On paper, it has a tremendous nuclear arsenal, but in reality the launch success rate would be very low. Indeed, in Security Studies, a detailed analysis has concluded that there is a high probability that the US now has a first strike capacity against the Russia (note, the article went on to discuss possible destabilizing results from this, so it wasn't considered a plus for the US in the article). The Russians easily handled the small country of Georgia. But, based on how it handled that, the Ukraine may give it a decent battle. Star Wars and the Afghanistan war were the beginning of the long slide in military power. Finally, its death rate is about 50% higher than its birth rate. While that is not inherently indicative of dropping out of the first world, the fact remains that it's a dying country, and a dying country that does not take care of its children to boot. If we do find alternatives to expensive (>$90/barrel) oil, Russia will have no basis for its economy. At that point, one real geopolitical risk is a strong China will see an empty Russia to its north, with great potential for farming as global warming opens up farming areas. Dan M. _______________________________________________ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
