At 04:15 PM Tuesday 12/23/2008, dsummersmi...@comcast.net wrote:
> > > > > Yesterday was the Summer solstice here in the South Pacific and the day > > > before was cold - only 6 degrees celsius. > > > > > > Global warming harumph. > > > > >The fact that it is colder in some places than normal may be a sign of > >global warming. I know that some predictions say that global warming will > >make it colder and wetter here in our part of California because more cold > >air will be sucked off the Pacific by rising air in a hotter Central >Valley. > > >Global warming will lead to less stable weather and more extremes. > >Or already is. > > > >From what I understand of the models, that's not quite the consensus. >Global warming is a long-term trend, not a year by year trend. In >addition, we know that the weather had other variables, like the hurricane >cycle (30s-40s many hurricanes, 70s-80s few, '00s many, or the La Nina/El >Nino variation. > >Overall, this last year has been the coolest in the decade. This doesn't >mean there is more variation than usual. For example, we've not had another >dust bowl of the '30s. > >To first order, one should expect a general warming, and pattern changes >with global warming. Most models predict more rain overall. The patterns >of drought may not be more vicious, we're just more globally connected now. >The data on hurricanes, in particular, is hard to pinpoint, because we can >not name a tropical storm that just reaches 40 mph in the mid-Atlantic, or >catch a hurricane at its peak of 155 to make it a cat 5, even though it >ramped up and down fast, and hit land as only a cat 2. > >So, if one applies a fairly heavy, say 15 year filter, to the data, one >sees global warming. If one looks for general regional trends, they are >probably still mostly in the noise, but may energe later (in fact I'd be >surprised if none emerged later). > >Dan M. http://www.cagle.com/working/081223/deering.gif Humor Maru . . . ronn! :) _______________________________________________ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
