On Sun, Aug 30, 2009 at 8:53 PM, Doug Pensinger<[email protected]> wrote:

> You are most definitely not obligated to talk about anything at all. I
>  was talking about your bitching about my use of analogy.

It was not "bitching", there was a point I was trying to make: taking
a complicated system like the US economy, and comparing it to
something far less complex, and then drawing conclusions from the
simple comparison leads to incorrect information, and overconfident
predictions.

Can some complex systems be analyzed by comparison to a more simple
system? Sure, there are plenty of examples, although most of them are
in the physical sciences rather than the social sciences. Asimov's
psychohistory made a great story, but it does not work in practice.
There are precious little useful predictions coming out of economics.

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