-----Original Message----- From: brin-l-boun...@mccmedia.com [mailto:brin-l-boun...@mccmedia.com] On Behalf Of Doug Pensinger Sent: Tuesday, May 04, 2010 11:22 PM To: Killer Bs (David Brin et al) Discussion Subject: Re: On Listmail
Concerning oil spills, Doug wrote. >Tax, conserve Both are reasonable ideas. If you recall, JDG had, almost a decade ago, suggested a gasoline tax to change buying habits. I had mentioned, around the same time, a $1.00 federal tax added every year....with appropriate rebates for low income folks, help with job training for truck drivers, etc. Of course, the best conservation possible is a massive downturn. CO2 output for 2009 was down to 1994 levels for the US. But, the latest data we have from China is 2006 data. Since then, their combined oil and coal consumption, and their cement production has indicated an increase in CO2 parallel to that of their economic growth. Thus, the true numbers of production would indicate that China is now, roughly, producing 50% more CO2 than the US. Baring a collapse of the Chinese economy (which is possible), in 3 years they will should double the CO2 output of the US. >find alternatives and leave the oil in the ground. >Here and elsewhere. If only we'd listened to Jimmy Carter. In any case, thanks for the info in your earlier post about possible causes; interesting stuff. One thing; you can speculate about this being a black swan, but there's no real way to confirm that. >Even if this kind of thing happens only a couple of times a century, that's >way too often. Why is something acute and highly visible, such as an oil slick, much worse than something chronic and invisible. For example, look at the biggest oil slick ever: http://countrystudies.us/saudi-arabia/17.htm The burn was massive, as the link said, soot was found in the Himalayas. The spill was overwhelming: >8 million barrels are listed hear. However, a New York Times article from a couple of years later indicated that the damage was acute: not long lasting. http://www.nytimes.com/1993/03/18/world/gulf-found-to-recover-from-war-s-oil -spill.html Contrast this, if you will, to the dead zone that has been in the Gulf for the last 20 years. This is a massive, chronic problem, probably associated at least somewhat with the fertilizer runoff from farms in the Mississippi drainage area. When you are discussing ending oil production, you are discussing a downturn in the world economy that would make the last two years look like a blip. I think where we mostly disagree is the concept that, with enough funding, the Captain Piccard system for engineering works (just say "make it so" and Geordi (sp) has it done by the end of the show). I'd argue, that Clay Christensen is correct on how innovations work. A quick overview of this idea is at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Disruptive_technology As is often true with Wikipedia, this isn't perfect, but I think that the basic concept describes why alternative fuel sources have not penetrated the market, and what would be needed for them to do so. It's probable that the US and Europe will have lower fossil fuel use in a decade than today. It's also probable, and it would take a 10 year lack of growth for this to not happen, that countries such as China and India will greatly increase their use of fossil fuels. Prices patterns indicate that oil production will not expand greatly. Natural gas will, and should, in the US, but most of the world will use a lot more coal...in plants with minimal pollution control equipment. The only way the US has to influence this is to come up with a disruptive innovation in energy. Anything else is as real as the run up in housing prices before the bubble burst. Dan M. BTW, Clay and Gautam are friends. They got to know each other when Gautam used this concept to explain why the British didn't use an effective countermeasure for submarine warfare on merchant ships in WWI that they had already been using to protect battleships until the end of the war. _______________________________________________ http://box535.bluehost.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
