>This link was sent to another list a little while ago:
>http://www.theoildrum.com/node/6593#comment-648967 >and people there (no experts in the field) are wondering if the >author likely knows what he is talking about or not. There seem to be two long pieces in the article. The first involves the loss of knowledge due to the up and down nature of the business. There are two problems with that. First, we're about 10 years into a generally up cycle. Oil prices dipped low for a couple of months, but the fact that BP is making billions a quarter and is drilling sub-salt in deep water proves that it's not bust time in the oil industry. Last bust was 98-99, when oil prices averaged about $15/barrel. No-one would be drilling deep water at those prices. Second, it wasn't that folks didn't know what the risks were and knew about the red flags. The proper procedure was recommended by several service companies, who were planning on following it. There was a fiery meeting in which the company man simply enforced his will. Look, that's not the part of the business I'm in, and _I_ knew why what they did was wrong from the beginning. Everyone around in the business knows. If the company man didn't know, then BP appointed someone who never learned the ropes to run one of their most critical wells. I'd bet dollars to donuts he knew better. The second part concerns where the problem is. I'm not sure how the first set of pipes and cementing broke. I saw holes near the blowout preventer, with mud coming out, and I saw mud come out, and then oil. But, that's because the mud had to be put in above all that, were the riser broke. My guess is that the downhole pressure was such that you couldn't push hard enough against it with the mud to force the column of oil and gas down. Instead, the interface was just below the surface, and the mud just flowed into the ocean through the holes. Even if there is a big hole 20 feet below the surface, the important question is the pressure downhole vs. the pressure from about 25k feet of oil and gas and 5k feet of sea water. So, once the pressure of the formation drops below, say, 12,000 psi, the well will stop leaking automatically. That may be a long time. So, they are trying to drill a well that will intercept the well down low and then pump mud in that well. If they intercept near the bottom, and use 18 lb mud, they could have 20k psi of pressure pushing down (and up the well of course). That should be a much better place to inject heavy mud. Finally, the restrictor for mud flow is the next to last set of casing (the last set blew up the well, through the rig). That is probably a 6" ID (mebbie up to 8). With the riser cut, that is what is restricting flow rates. So, I don't see a hole high in the drill string as a big problem. That's the biggest ID casing, so it's not the limiting factor to the flow rate. Dan M. _______________________________________________ http://box535.bluehost.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
