On Wed 05 Dec 2007 (01:58 +0100), Wojciech Zaremba wrote: > So gnubg should to move from 4 to off and from 2 to off (or looking on the > board from 21,23 to the board)
Sorry, I misread your initial post as being a report that gnubg simply got stuck playing that position, not that gnubg's move was absurd. It's a legal move, using the 2 first - 4/2/off, it just seems to make little sense. However, the other players chances of winning are so tiny that it almost makes no difference what move gnubg chooses - the equity difference between taking two pieces off on this roll and one piece is absolutely tiny. Basicly, the opponent needs to roll four doubles in the next 5 moves while gnubg rolls no doubles, The chances of that happening I make to be: 0.482 - that gnubg rolls no doubles in its next four rolls times 0.000776 - that the opponent rolls at least four doubles in the next five rolls. the net result is that the opponent wins 0.031 percent of the time and the difference in equity between taking one or two off now is negligible. I haven't checked, it may well be that it makes no difference at all in reducing the worst case number of rolls for gnubg. -- Jim Segrave [EMAIL PROTECTED] _______________________________________________ Bug-gnubg mailing list [email protected] http://lists.gnu.org/mailman/listinfo/bug-gnubg
