Hi Christian,
Am 05.08.2008 um 15:13 schrieb Christian Anthon:
Hi Achim,
it is not an entirely easy question to answer. But here is a short
explanation of the numbers:
Luck total EMG (MWC) -5.700 (-12.144%) -2.564
(+20.291%)
means that B gained 20.291+12.144 = 32.435% MWC by luck. As he
presumably started the match with 50% MWC, that means that he gained
100-50-32.435=17.57% MWC through skill:
Luck adjusted result -17.57%
+17.57%
or that he wins 32.43:67.57% of the matches. Whether these numbers are
good or meaningful I don't know.
Are sure about this? Then Robert-Jan Veldhuizen mus be wrong:
http://www.gammonlife.com/gnu/gnu2.htm
# Luck adjusted result GNUBG also measures the amount of luck a player
got every roll.
Adding it all up, GNUBG compensates the actual result above for luck
and comes up
with an adjusted figure. +0.83% and -0.83% here means that GNUBG
thinks Y-33 had
50.83% chance to win this match, compared to my 49.17%. Since GNUBG
has "removed" the
luck, this should be an unbiased skill indicator. Unfortunately, it
isn't always very
accurate, especially not for shorter matches, but a useful figure
nevertheless.
No matter whether I use your interpretation (player B wins 32.43%,
player A 67.57%) or
his (vice versa), this number can't be very meaningful. Your "skill"
always depends on
how much luck you have. With an error rate difference less than 1
(snowie) the
difference in skill can't be that big. But perhaps I miss something
here.
That's why I asked for the fibs ratings. I guess these numbers are
more reliable
regarding match winning chances.
Ciao
Achim
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