[email protected] wrote on 04/02/2009 00:14:32:
> One of the available criteria to end a rollout is when standard deviations > are small enough. For instance, it could be : > > Stop rollout when STD's are small enough > After 1296 games, rollouts will stop if the STDs are small enough. > Rollouts can stop when the ratio |STD/value| is less than 0.0040 for > every value (win/gammon/backgammon/...equity) > > I think there are two problems with the way this is curently implemented : > > - the "ratio ... for every value" works poorly when one of the values, > usually backgammons for one of the players, is small but not zero. All > other STD/value ratios are roughly identical but that of this irrelevant > (equity-wise) term can be 10 or 20 or 30 times larger and cause the > rollout to take much more time. > > I'd suggest we check only the equity. If it is accurate, the single > win/gammon/backgammon numbers will be as well if they are any significant. Makes much sense to me. I was even tinking the stopping criteria was already working in the manner you describe. > - if one doesn't care for the individual kind of outcomes, the STD/value > ratio doesn't seem pertinent. Do we really want to know equities around > 0.2 with an accuracy five times higher than those around 1 for instance ? > > The simple STD on a 1-cube, whatever the equity, seems a better criterion. I suppose that if one is not interested in estimatnig individual equities then his/her interest is in estimating the relative ranking of the alternatives. In this case, the jsd-based criteria seems better. Anyway, I've never digged too much into these options, I just wait for the unstopped rollout to finish :) MaX.
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