By Clive Crook
Clive Crook's blog:When I read a piece a few days ago by Michael Barone on Real
Clear Politics arguing that "the old rule that economic distress moves voters
toward Democrats doesn't seem to be operating," I found it somewhat persuasive.
He argued that blame for the crisis cannot easily be pinned on Republicans
alone, and that voters may fear that taxes will rise faster under Mr Obama than
they would under Mr McCain (regardless of the fact that Mr Obama is promising
more tax relief for most Americans than Mr McCain), which in turn would be more
bad news for the economy. But a new poll this morning seems to say otherwise,
according to The Washington Post: "Turmoil in the financial industry and
growing pessimism about the economy have altered the shape of the presidential
race, giving Democratic nominee Barack Obama the first clear lead of the
general-election campaign over Republican John McCain, according to the latest
Washington Post-ABC News national
poll.
"Just 9 per cent of those surveyed rated the economy as good or excellent, the
first time that number has been in single digits since the days just before the
1992 election. Just 14 per cent said the country is heading in the right
direction, equalling the record low on that question in polls dating back to
1973.
"More voters trust Obama to deal with the economy, and he currently has a big
edge as the candidate who is more in tune with the economic problems Americans
now face. He also has a double-digit advantage on handling the current problems
on Wall Street, and as a result, there has been a rise in his overall support.
The poll found that, among likely voters, Obama now leads McCain by 52 per cent
to 43 per cent. Two weeks ago, in the days immediately following the Republican
National Convention, the race was essentially even, with McCain at 49 per cent
and Obama at 47 per cent."
It is just one poll, but still. I do think Mr Obama is handling the crisis much
better thanMr McCain - not because he is suggesting betterremedies(he continues
to say little), but because his instinct to reflect before opening his mouth
and his impeccable taste in advisers are both working to his advantage.
These factors, I think, are much more important than the supposed popularity of
standard Democratic positions on economic management. Unlike Mr McCain, Mr
Obama offers no instant bold responses needing to be qualified or withdrawn or
forgotten soon after. As ever, he looks calm, methodical and unruffled - and
has his picture taken in conference with Paul Volcker, Bob Rubin and Larry
Summers, who command wide respect. His response may be thin, so far, on
content, but it is an altogether more reassuring posture than his rival's
tendency to hasty and exaggerated certainty.
This difference of intellectual temperament has often been seen as one of
Obama's biggest drawbacks, including by many of his own supporters. But the
complexities of the crisis are putting those traits in a much better light.
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