----- Original Message ----- From: samngatki To: [email protected] Sent: Sunday, February 15, 2009 3:13 AM Subject: Significant political change expected after King's return
KHMER INTELLIGENCE NEWS 15 February 2009 >From "CIA agents" to "SRP agents" (2) Over the last few weeks, Prime Minister Hun Sen has been accusing the opposition SRP of trying to split the ruling CPP. By making such an accusation, which is obviously groundless given the democratic opposition's little influence, if any, over the authoritarian and very disciplined ruling party, Hun Sen actually wants to warn his colleagues within the CPP against challenging his more and more absolute power. If any CPP members are not one hundred percent loyal to Hun Sen, they will be considered by the prime minister as "traitors" who plot with the opposition and play the role of "SRP agents" to destabilize their own party. Anti-Hun Sen CPP dissidents will then be crushed without mercy. Similarly, the Khmer Rouge used to accuse possible or imaginary dissidents under the Pol Pot regime of being "CIA agents". Significant political change expected after King's return (2) After a three-week lull, a significant political change associated with purges may take place following King Norodom Sihamoni's return in Cambodia toward the end of this month. The present lull is attributable to the fact that only the Monarch can sign off Royal Decrees promoting or demoting high-ranking government officials. Some moves in the pipeline have been shelved because Senate and CPP President Chea Sim is currently the acting head of state. See "No army or police reshuffle in the next three weeks" (KI News, 4 February 2009). Reasons for Hun Sen's refusal to evoke 1991 Paris Agreements in conflict resolution (2) Because month-long bilateral talks have not led to any concrete results while trying to peacefully solve border disputes with Thailand, an increasing number of voices are urging the Cambodian government to evoke the 1991 Paris Agreements as a basis for multilateral negotiations implying international guarantees. Read "1991 Paris Accords: Most appropriate basis for the resolution of conflict with Thailand" (KI News, 17 September 2008). Even though his attitude is detrimental to Cambodia's national interests, Hun Sen refuses to consider evoking the UN-sponsored Paris Agreements for the following partisan reasons: 1- The first ever democratic elections held in Cambodia in 1993, under the control of the Blue Helmets, led to a resounding defeat for the CPP which contrasts with CPP subsequent controversial victories. 2- Besides provisions beneficial to Cambodia because they guarantee her territorial integrity, the 1991 Paris Agreements contain other significant provisions related to the respect for human, political and civil rights which Hun Sen does not want to hear about given his authoritarian rule. Thaksin has been recently spotted in Cambodia (2) Four days ago, a number of opposition National Assembly members asked Prime Minister Hun Sen to confirm the presence in Cambodia, in January and/or February 2009, of Thailand's ousted Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra. The presence of the foreign fugitive politician on Cambodian soil may have negative implications on relations with neighboring Thailand. According to article 96 of the Constitution, Hun Sen must respond to the parliamentarians within seven days after receiving their letter. Read the letter in Khmer at http://tinyurl.com/arb59e Read also "Thaksin's business interests in Cambodia are a touchy issue" (KI News, 17 September 2008) and "Thaksin prepares his comeback with the support of Hun Sen" (KI News, 19 August 2008). ARCHIVES 4 February 2009 No army or police reshuffle in the next three weeks (2) King Norodom Sihamoni left Cambodia today for a three-week visit to China where he will stay with the King-Father and the Queen-Mother in Beijing. Some observers infer that there would be no army or police reshuffle during the King's absence because only the Monarch can sign off Royal Decrees promoting or demoting high-ranking government officials. 17 September 2008 1991 Paris Accords: Most appropriate basis for the resolution of conflict with Thailand (2) In a September 17 letter, the Opposition asks the Government to call on the signatories of the 1991 Paris Peace Accords on Cambodia to fulfill their legal obligations to help find a peaceful resolution to the border conflict with Thailand. See letter in Khmer at http://tinyurl.com/64erzc One of the Accords, the "Agreement concerning the sovereignty, independence, territorial integrity and inviolability, neutrality and national unity of Cambodia" states, in its Article 5, that: 1: In the event of a violation or threat of violation of the sovereignty, independence, territorial integrity of Cambodia, the parties to this Agreement undertake to consult immediately with a view to adopting all appropriate steps to ensure respect for [their] commitments [towards Cambodia] and resolving any such violations through peaceful means. 2: Such steps may include, inter alia, reference of the matter to the Security Council of the United Nations. 3: The parties to this Agreement [including Cambodia] may also call upon the assistance of the co-Chairmen of the Paris Conference on Cambodia [France and Indonesia]. All Cambodia's neighboring countries and all the world's powers signed the Paris Peace Accords in 1991. So far, bilateral talks with Thailand have produced no results and the UN Security Council has refused to deal with Cambodia's complaint. Thaksin's business interests in Cambodia are a touchy issue (2) As reported in the "Bangkok Post" on September 14, former Thai Prime Minister and business tycoon Thaksin Shinawatra may be involved in big businesses in Cambodia, especially in Koh Kong province. Read the article at http://tinyurl.com/5ql7z4 Actually, Thaksin may have a hidden (political) agenda when pouring money into Cambodia (see KI News, 19 August 2008: "Thaksin prepares his comeback with the support of Hun Sen"). On September 8, Opposition MP Son Chhay wrote to the Government asking for information related to a deal that Thaksin reportedly signed in Cambodia with Prime Minister Hun Sen only a few months ago. See letter in Khmer at http://tinyurl.com/5bdgnt According to the Constitution (Article 96), the Government must provide explanations to any question from any Member of Parliament within seven days after receiving the question. Son Chhay has received no answer whatsoever as of today, nine days after the Government has received his question. 19 August 2008 Thaksin prepares his comeback with the support of Hun Sen (2) Former Thai Prime Minister and business tycoon Thaksin Shinawatra has recently signed an official deal with Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen to allegedly develop Cambodia's south-western maritime province of Koh Kong. In fact, Thaksin wants to secure very convenient Cambodian-based facilities to prepare his political comeback in Thailand. Hun Sen is well aware of Thaksin's hidden agenda but the pair have many things in common. The current tension between Cambodia and Thailand about Preah Vihear temple is in part due to false assurances given by Thaksin to Hun Sen in the past about border delineation. A possible additional reason for the tension is pressure exerted by Vietnam on Hun Sen to prove his loyalty toward Hanoi. From this perspective the current tension is reminiscent of the anti-Thai riots in Phnom Penh in January 2003 which were organized by the most pro-Vietnamese elements within the Cambodian government. ______________ __._,_.___ Messages in this topic (1) Reply (via web post) | Start a new topic Messages | Files | Photos | Links | Database | Polls | Members | Calendar ---------------------------------------- Being a member of this Group entails that you will receive all news compiled by Khmer Intelligence by e-mail as soon as they are posted on our web site. 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